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Income and price elasticities of electricity demand: Aggregate and sector-wise analyses

机译：电力需求的收入和价格弹性：总体分析和行业分析

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摘要

Cointegration and vector error correction modeling approaches are widely used in electricity demand analysis. The study rigorously examines the determinants of electricity demand at aggregate and sectoral levels in Pakistan. In the backdrop of severe electricity shortages, our empirical findings give support to the existence of a stable long-run relationship among the variables and indicate that electricity demand is elastic in the long run to both income and price at aggregate level. At sectoral level, long-run income and price elasticity estimates follow this pattern except in agricultural sector, where electricity demand is found elastic to output but inelastic to electricity price. On the contrary, the coefficients for income and price are rather small and mostly insignificant in the short run. We employed temperature index, price of diesel oil and capital stock at aggregate and sectoral levels as exogenous variables. These variables account for most of the variations in electricity demand in the short run. It shows that mechanization of the economy significantly affect the electricity demand at macro level. Moreover, elastic electricity demand with respect to electricity price in most of the sectors implies that electricity price as a policy tool can be used for efficient use and conservation.
机译：协整和矢量误差校正建模方法已广泛用于电力需求分析中。该研究严格审查了巴基斯坦总体和部门水平上电力需求的决定因素。在严重的电力短缺的背景下，我们的实证研究结果支持变量之间存在长期稳定的关系，并表明从长远来看，电力需求对总收入和价格均具有弹性。在部门一级，长期收入和价格弹性估计遵循这种模式，但农业部门除外，在农业部门中，电力需求对产出具有弹性，而对电力价格则无弹性。相反，短期的收入和价格系数很小，几乎没有意义。我们将温度指数，柴油价格以及总和部门水平的资本存量作为外生变量。这些变量说明了短期内电力需求的大部分变化。它表明，经济的机械化对宏观电力需求产生了重大影响。此外，在大多数部门中，相对于电价的弹性电力需求意味着电价作为一种政策工具可以用于有效利用和节约。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2011年第9期|p.5519-5527|共9页
  • 作者

    Faisal Jamil; Eatzaz Ahmad;

  • 作者单位

    School of Economics, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan;

    School of Economics, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    electricity demand; vecm; price elasticity;

    机译：电力需求;vecm;价格弹性;

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