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首页> 外文期刊>Energy Policy >Simulating the impact of policy, energy prices and technological progress on the passenger car fleet in Austria-A model based analysis 2010-2050
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Simulating the impact of policy, energy prices and technological progress on the passenger car fleet in Austria-A model based analysis 2010-2050

机译：在奥地利模拟政策，能源价格和技术进步对乘用车车队的影响-基于模型的分析2010-2050

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摘要

This paper investigates the effects of policy, fuel prices and technological progress on the Austrian passenger car fleet in terms of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To analyse these effects a simulation model is used. We model the car fleet from a bottom-up perspective, with a detailed coverage of vehicle specifications and propulsion technologies. The model focuses on the technological trend toward electrified propulsion systems and their potential effects on the fleet's energy consumption and GHG emissions. To represent the impact of prices and income on the development of the fleet, we combine the fleet model with top-down demand models. We developed two scenarios for the time frame 2010-2050, using two different sets of assumptions for regulatory development and conditions of increasing fossil fuel prices and continuous technological progress in vehicle propulsion technologies. The results indicate that material cuts in energy consumption and GHG emissions can be achieved with changes to the political framework for passenger cars. Appropriate taxation of fuels and cars can stabilise demand for individual motorised transport and lead to an improvement in vehicle efficiency by fostering the adoption of efficient vehicle propulsion technologies and low carbon fuels.
机译：本文从能源消耗和温室气体（GHG）排放方面研究了政策，燃料价格和技术进步对奥地利乘用车车队的影响。为了分析这些影响，使用了仿真模型。我们从下至上的角度对车队进行建模，并详细介绍了车辆规格和推进技术。该模型着眼于电气化推进系统的技术趋势及其对机队能源消耗和温室气体排放的潜在影响。为了表示价格和收入对车队发展的影响，我们将车队模型与自上而下的需求模型结合在一起。我们针对监管发展和化石燃料价格上涨以及车辆推进技术持续技术进步的条件，使用两种不同的假设，为2010-2050年的时间框架开发了两种方案。结果表明，改变乘用车的政治框架可以实现能源消耗和温室气体排放的实质性削减。通过鼓励采用高效的车辆推进技术和低碳燃料，对燃料和汽车进行适当的征税可以稳定对单个机动运输的需求，并提高车辆效率。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2011年第9期|p.5045-5062|共18页
  • 作者

    Maximilian Kloess; Andreas Mueller;

  • 作者单位

    Vienna University of Technology, Energy Economics Croup, Gusshausstrasse 25-29, 1040 Vienna, Austria;

    Vienna University of Technology, Energy Economics Croup, Gusshausstrasse 25-29, 1040 Vienna, Austria;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    passenger car transport; model based analysis; scenarios;

    机译：乘用车运输;基于模型的分析;情景;

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