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Energy efficiency and the cost of GHG abatement: A comparison of bottom-up and hybrid models for the US

机译：能源效率和温室气体减排成本：美国自下而上和混合模式的比较

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摘要

A highly influential report by the McKinsey consulting firm suggests that a large potential for profitable energy efficiency exists in the US, and that substantial greenhouse gas emissions reductions can therefore be achieved at a low cost. This result is consistent with other studies conducted using a bottom-up methodology that dates back to the work of Lovins beginning in the 1970s. Research over the past two decades, however, has identified shortcomings with the conventional bottom-up approach, and this has led to the development of new analytical frameworks that are referred to as hybrid energy-economy models. Using the CIMS hybrid model, we conducted simulations for comparison with the McKinsey results. These exercises suggest a more modest potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at a given marginal cost, as well as a smaller contribution from energy efficiency relative to other abatement opportunities such as fuel switching and carbon capture and storage. Hybrid models incorporate parameters reflecting risk and quality into their estimates of technology costs, and our analysis suggests that these play a significant role in explaining differences in the results.
机译：麦肯锡咨询公司的一份极有影响力的报告表明，美国存在着提高能源效率的巨大潜力，因此可以以较低的成本实现大幅度的温室气体减排。这一结果与使用自下而上的方法进行的其他研究一致，该研究可以追溯到Lovins于1970年代开始的工作。然而，过去二十年的研究发现了传统的自下而上方法的不足，这导致了新的分析框架的发展，这些框架被称为混合能源经济模型。使用CIMS混合模型，我们进行了仿真以与麦肯锡的结果进行比较。这些演习表明，以给定的边际成本降低温室气体排放的潜力较小，相对于其他减排机会（如燃料转换和碳捕获与储存），能源效率的贡献较小。混合模型将反映风险和质量的参数纳入其技术成本估算中，我们的分析表明，这些模型在解释结果差异方面起着重要作用。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2011年第11期|p.7146-7155|共10页
  • 作者

    Rose Murphy; Mark Jaccard;

  • 作者单位

    School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, British Columbia V5A 1S6, Canada;

    School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, British Columbia V5A 1S6, Canada;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    energy efficiency; greenhouse gas; mckinsey;

    机译：能源效率;温室气体;麦金西;

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