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Global oil risks in the early 21st century

机译：21世纪初的全球石油风险

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摘要

The Deepwater Horizon incident demonstrated that most of the oil left is deep offshore or in other difficult to reach locations. Moreover, obtaining the oil remaining in currently producing reservoirs requires additional equipment and technology that comes at a higher price in both capital and energy. In this regard, the physical limitations on producing the ever-increasing quantities of oil are highlighted as well as the possibility of the peak of production occurring this decade. The economics of oil supply and demand are also briefly discussed showing why the available supply is basically fixed in the short to medium term. Also, an alarm bell for economic recessions is shown to be when energy takes a disproportionate amount of total consumer expenditures. In this context, risk mitigation practices in government and business are called for. As for the former, early education of the citizenry of the risk of economic contraction is a prudent policy to minimize potential future social discord. As for the latter, all business operations should be examined with the aim of building in resilience and preparing for a scenario in which capital and energy are much more expensive than in the business-as-usual one.
机译：“深水地平线”事件表明，剩下的大部分石油都位于深海或其他难以到达的地方。此外，要获得目前生产的油藏中剩余的石油，还需要额外的设备和技术，这些设备和技术的资本和能源价格都较高。在这方面，突出了生产越来越多的石油的物理局限性以及这十年中出现生产高峰的可能性。还简要讨论了石油供需经济学，以说明为什么短期至中期的可用供应量基本固定。同样，当能源消耗的消费者总支出不成比例时，经济衰退的警钟就显示出来了。在这种情况下，需要在政府和企业中降低风险。对于前者，对公民进行经济收缩风险的早期教育是一种谨慎的政策，可以最大程度地减少未来可能出现的社会矛盾。至于后者，应检查所有业务运营，以增强弹性并为资本和能源比常规业务贵得多的情况做准备。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2011年第12期|p.7865-7873|共9页
  • 作者

    Dean Fantazzini; Mikael Hook; Andre Angelantoni;

  • 作者单位

    Moscow School of Economics, Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia,Faculty of Economics, Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia,The International College of Economics and Finance, Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia;

    Uppsala University, Global Energy Systems, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala, Sweden;

    Post Peak Living, San Francisco, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    peak oil; economic risks; energy transition risks;

    机译：峰值油经济风险;能源过渡风险;

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