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Bounds test approach to cointegration and causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in India

机译：印度核能消耗与经济增长之间协整关系和因果关系的界限检验方法

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摘要

This paper attempts to examine the dynamic relationship between economic growth, nuclear energy consumption, labor and capital for India for the period 1969-2006. Applying the bounds test approach to cointegration developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) we find that there was a short- and a long-run relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth. Using four long-run estimators we also found that nuclear energy consumption has a positive and a statistically significant impact on India's economic growth. Further, applying the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) approach to Granger causality and the variance decomposition approach developed by Pesaran and Shin (1998), we found a positive and a significant uni-directional causality running from nuclear energy consumption to economic growth without feedback. This implies that economic growth in India is dependent on nuclear energy consumption where a decrease in nuclear energy consumption may lead to a decrease in real income. For a fast growing energy-dependent economy this may have far-reaching implications for economic growth. India's economic growth can be frustrated if energy conservation measures are undertaken without due regard to the negative impact they have on economic growth.
机译：本文试图考察1969-2006年印度经济增长，核能消耗，劳动力和资本之间的动态关系。将边界检验方法应用于Pesaran等人开发的协整。 （2001年），我们发现核能消耗与经济增长之间存在短期和长期的关系。使用四个长期估计量，我们还发现核能消耗对印度的经济增长具有积极的和统计学上的显着影响。此外，将Toda和Yamamoto（1995）方法应用于Granger因果关系以及Pesaran和Shin（1998）开发的方差分解方法，我们发现了从核能消耗到经济增长的正向且显着的单向因果关系，没有反馈。这意味着印度的经济增长取决于核能消耗，其中核能消耗的减少可能导致实际收入的减少。对于快速增长的能源依赖型经济而言，这可能对经济增长产生深远的影响。如果采取节能措施而没有适当考虑到其对经济增长的负面影响，印度的经济增长可能会受挫。

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