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Long-term uncertainty evaluation of pool electricity markets

机译：泳池电力市场的长期不确定性评估

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Pool electricity markets are cleared under the strong assumption of having a perfectly known future; in real life, this is anything but true. The inability to predict the random parameters of the supply and the demand function introduces risk into the market clearing process. Therefore, the main interest is to minimize such risk by means of a trade-off of the mean and the variance of the social cost function. This paper considers random variations on the levels and on the slopes of the quadratic supply and demand functions. Correlation is considered between the corresponding coefficients of the supply and demand curves. By means of the mean-variance Markowitz theory, the risk introduced by these random variations is analyzed. A comprehensive analysis on the effects that the mean-variance Markowitz theory has on the nodal spot prices and on the point-elasticities of the supply and demand curves is made. The non-linear optimization model presented in this paper is validated through a three-, a six-, and a 21-node system.
机译：池电力市场在有一个众所周知的未来的强烈假设下得以清理。在现实生活中，这不是真的。无法预测供应和需求函数的随机参数会在市场清算过程中引入风险。因此，主要目的是通过权衡均值和社会成本函数的方差来最大程度地降低此类风险。本文考虑了二次供求函数的水平和斜率的随机变化。供需曲线的相应系数之间存在相关性。借助均值方差Markowitz理论，分析了这些随机变化带来的风险。全面分析了均方差Markowitz理论对节点现货价格以及供求曲线的点弹性的影响。本文介绍的非线性优化模型通过三节点，六节点和21节点系统进行了验证。

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