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Global oil depletion: A review of the evidence

机译：全球石油枯竭：证据回顾

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摘要

Within the polarised and contentious debate over future oil supply a growing number of commentators are forecasting a near term peak and subsequent decline in production. But although liquid fuels form the foundation of modern industrial economies, the growing debate on 'peak oil' has relatively little influence on energy and climate policy. With this in mind, the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) has conducted an independent, thorough and systematic review of the evidence, with the aim of establishing the current state of knowledge, identifying key uncertainties and improving consensus. The study focuses upon the physical depletion of conventional oil in the period to 2030 and includes an in-depth literature review, analysis of industry databases and a detailed comparison of global supply forecasts. This Communication summarises the main findings of the UKERC study. A key conclusion is that a peak of conventional oil production before 2030 appears likely and there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020.
机译：在有关未来石油供应的两极分化和争议性辩论中，越来越多的评论员预测，近期石油产量将达到峰值，随后将下降。但是，尽管液体燃料构成了现代工业经济的基础，但有关“峰值石油”的争论日益激烈，对能源和气候政策的影响相对较小。考虑到这一点，英国能源研究中心（UKERC）对证据进行了独立，透彻和系统的审查，目的是建立当前的知识状态，识别关键的不确定性并提高共识。这项研究的重点是到2030年常规油的物理消耗，包括深入的文献综述，行业数据库分析以及全球供应预测的详细比较。本通讯总结了UKERC研究的主要发现。一个关键结论是，到2030年之前，常规石油产量可能会达到峰值，并且存在到2020年之前达到峰值的巨大风险。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2010年第9期|P.5290-5295|共6页
  • 作者

    Steve Sorrell; Jamie Speirs; Roger Bentley; Adam Brandt; Richard Miller;

  • 作者单位

    Sussex Energy Group, SPRU (Science and Technology Policy Research), Freeman Centre, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton BN1 9QE, UK;

    rnImperial College Centre for Energy Policy and Technology, UK;

    rnDepartment of Cybernetics, University of Reading, UK;

    rnDepartment of Energy Resources Engineering, Stanford University, USA;

    rnIndependent Consultant, UK;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    depletion; peak oil; oil supply forecasting;

    机译：消耗;峰值油石油供应预测;

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