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Technology S-curves in renewable energy alternatives: Analysis and implications for industry and government

机译：可再生能源替代技术的技术曲线：对行业和政府的分析和启示

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摘要

Plotting the performance of a technology against the money or effort invested in it most often yields an S-shaped curve: slow initial improvement, then accelerated improvement, then diminishing improvement. These S-curves can be used to gain insight into the relative payoff of investment in competing technologies, as well as providing some insight into when and why some technologies overtake others in the race for dominance. Analyzing renewable energies from such a technology S-curve perspective reveals some surprising and important implications for both government and industry. Using data on government R&D investment and technological improvement (in the form of cost reductions), we show that both wind energy and geothermal energy are poised to become more economical than fossil fuels within a relatively short time frame. The evidence further suggests that R&D for wind and geothermal technologies has been under-funded by national governments relative to funding for solar technologies, and government funding of fossil fuel technologies might be excessive given the diminishing performance of those technologies.
机译：将技术性能与投入的金钱或精力相对比，通常会产生S形曲线：缓慢的初始改进，然后是加速的改进，然后是减小的改进。这些S曲线可用于洞悉竞争技术的相对投资回报，并提供一些洞察力，以了解何时以及为什么某些技术在竞争中超越其他技术。从这种技术的S曲线角度分析可再生能源，对政府和工业界都具有令人惊讶和重要的意义。使用有关政府研发投资和技术改进的数据（以降低成本的形式），我们表明风能和地热能都有望在较短的时间内变得比化石燃料更经济。证据还表明，相对于太阳能技术的资金投入，国家政府对风能和地热技术的研发资金不足，鉴于这些技术的性能下降，政府对化石燃料技术的资金投入可能过多。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2009年第5期|1767-1781|共15页
  • 作者

    Melissa A. Schilling; Melissa Esmundo;

  • 作者单位

    Stern School of Business, New York University, 40 West 4th Street, New York, NY 10012, USA;

    Stern School of Business, New York University, 40 West 4th Street, New York, NY 10012, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    renewable energy; technological innovation;

    机译：再生能源;技术创新;

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