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The sustainability challenge of meeting carbon dioxide targets in Europe by 2020

机译：到2020年实现欧洲二氧化碳目标的可持续性挑战

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Following the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union obligated itself to lower its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 20% below their 1990 level, by the year 2020. Carbon dioxide is the major GHG. To fulfil this obligation, the nations must meet the sustainability challenge of countering rising population plus affluence with the dematerialization of less energy per GDP plus the decarbonization of less carbon per energy. To test the feasibility of meeting the challenge, we analysed carbon dioxide emission during 1993-2004. Although emissions in the entire Union grew only by an average of 0.31% per year, emissions and their drivers varied markedly among the 27 member states. Dematerialization and decarbonization did occur, but not enough to offset the slight population growth plus rapidly increasing affluence. To fulfil its obligation in the next 12 years, the EU27 would have to counter its increasing population and affluence by a combined dematerialization and decarbonization 1.9-2.6 times faster than during 1993-2004. Hence, fulfilling its obligation by addressing fossil carbon emissions alone is very unlikely.
机译：根据《京都议定书》，欧盟有义务到2020年将其温室气体（GHG）排放量比1990年的水平降低20％。二氧化碳是主要的温室气体。为了履行这一义务，各国必须应对可持续发展的挑战，即应对人口增长和富裕问题，即减少每单位GDP的能源的去物质化，再加上减少每单位能源的碳的脱碳。为了测试应对挑战的可行性，我们分析了1993-2004年期间的二氧化碳排放量。尽管整个联盟的排放量每年仅以平均0.31％的速度增长，但在27个成员国中，排放量及其驱动因素差异很大。确实发生了非物质化和脱碳，但不足以抵消人口的小幅增长以及财富的迅速增加。为了在未来的12年内履行其义务，EU27必须通过比1993-2004年间快1.9到2.6倍的脱碳和脱碳相结合的措施来应对不断增长的人口和富裕程度。因此，仅靠解决化石碳排放来履行其义务是非常不可能的。

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