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An econometrics view of worldwide fossil fuel consumption and the role of US

机译：对全球化石燃料消费量和美国的作用的计量经济学观点

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Crude oil, coal and gas, known as fossil fuels, play a crucial role in the global economy. This paper proposes new econometrics modelling to demonstrate the trend of fossil fuels consumption. The main variables affecting consumption trends are: world reserves, the price of fossil fuels, US production and US net imports. All variables have been analysed individually for more than half a century. The research found that while the consumption of fossil fuels worldwide has increased trends in the US production and net imports have been dependent on the type of fossil fuels. Most of the US coal and gas production has been for domestic use, which is why it does not have a strong influence on worldwide fossil fuel prices. Moreover, the reserves of fossil fuels have not shown any diminution during the last couple of decades and predictions that they were about to run out are not substantiated. The nominal and real price of fossil fuels was found to change depending on the type. Finally, estimates of three econometric models for the consumption of fossil fuels from 1949 to 2006 are presented which identify the effects of significant variables.
机译：被称为化石燃料的原油，煤炭和天然气在全球经济中发挥着至关重要的作用。本文提出了新的计量经济学模型，以证明化石燃料消耗的趋势。影响消费趋势的主要变量是：世界储备，化石燃料价格，美国生产和美国净进口。半个多世纪以来，对所有变量进行了单独分析。研究发现，尽管全球范围内化石燃料的消费量呈增长趋势，但美国的净进口量却取决于化石燃料的类型。美国大部分的煤炭和天然气生产都供国内使用，这就是为什么它对全球化石燃料价格没有很大影响的原因。此外，在过去的几十年中，化石燃料的储量没有显示出任何减少，而且关于将要用完的预测没有得到证实。发现化石燃料的名义价格和实际价格根据类型而变化。最后，给出了从1949年到2006年三种化石燃料消费计量经济学模型的估计，这些模型确定了重要变量的影响。

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