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Mitigation of maximum world oil production: Shortage scenarios

机译：减少世界最大石油产量：短缺情况

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A framework is developed for planning the mitigation of the oil shortages that will be caused by world oil production reaching a maximum and going into decline. To estimate potential economic impacts, a reasonable relationship between percent decline in world oil supply and percent decline in world GDP was determined to be roughly 1:1. As a limiting case for decline rates, giant fields were examined. Actual oil production from Europe and North America indicated significant periods of relatively flat oil production (plateaus). However, before entering its plateau period, North American oil production went through a sharp peak and steep decline. Examination of a number of future world oil production forecasts showed multi-year rollover/roll-down periods, which represent pseudoplateaus. Consideration of resource nationalism posits an Oil Exporter Withholding Scenario, which could potentially overwhelm all other considerations. Three scenarios for mitigation planning resulted from this analysis: (1) A Best Case, where maximum world oil production is followed by a multi-year plateau before the onset of a monatomic decline rate of 2-5% per year; (2) A Middling Case, where world oil production reaches a maximum, after which it drops into a long-term, 2-5% monotonic annual decline; and finally (3) A Worst Case, where the sharp peak of the Middling Case is degraded by oil exporter withholding, leading to world oil shortages growing potentially more rapidly than 2-5% per year, creating the most dire world economic impacts.
机译：开发了一个框架，用于规划缓解因世界石油产量达到最大值并呈下降趋势而造成的石油短缺。为了估计潜在的经济影响，世界石油供应量下降百分比与世界GDP下降百分比之间的合理关系被确定为大约1：1。作为下降速度的极限情况，对巨型田地进行了研究。欧洲和北美的实际石油产量表明石油产量相对平稳（高原）。然而，在进入平稳期之前，北美石油生产经历了一个高峰和一个急剧下降。对许多未来世界石油产量预测的检验显示，多年的展期/滚动期是假高原。对资源民族主义的考虑提出了石油出口商的扣缴方案，这有可能使所有其他考虑不堪重负。该分析得出了三种缓解计划的方案：（1）最佳情况，在世界石油产量最高的情况下，在每年以2％至5％的单原子率下降之前，出现了多年的平稳期； （2）中度案例，世界石油产量达到最高，然后下降到长期的2％至5％的单调长期长期下降；最后（3）最糟糕的情况，中产阶级的尖峰时期由于石油出口国的扣缴而恶化，导致世界石油短缺可能以每年超过2％到5％的速度增长，从而对世界经济造成最严重的影响。

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