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Transport energy modeling with meta-heuristic harmony search algorithm, an application to Turkey

机译：基于元启发式和谐搜索算法的运输能量建模在土耳其的应用

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This study proposes a new method for estimating transport energy demand using a harmony search (HS) approach. HArmony Search Transport Energy Demand Estimation (HASTEDE) models are developedtaking population, gross domestic product and vehicle kilometers as an input. The HASTEDE models are in forms of linear, exponential and quadratic mathematical expressions and they are applied to Turkish Transportation sector energy consumption. Optimum or near-optimum values of the HS parameters are obtained with sensitivity analysis (SA). Performance of all models is compared with the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR) projections. Results showed that HS algorithm may be used for energy modeling, but SA is required to obtain best values of the HS parameters. The quadratic form of HASTEDE will overestimate transport sector energy consumption by about 26% and linear and exponential forms underestimate by about 21% when they are compared with the MENR projections. This may happen due to the modeling procedure and selected parameters for models, but determining the upper and lower values of transportation sector energy consumption will provide a framework and flexibility for setting up energy policies.
机译：这项研究提出了一种使用和谐搜索（HS）方法估算运输能源需求的新方法。以人口，国内生产总值和车辆公里数为输入，开发了哈莫尼搜索交通能源需求估算（HASTEDE）模型。 HASTEDE模型采用线性，指数和二次数学表达式的形式，并应用于土耳其交通部门的能耗。通过灵敏度分析（SA）获得HS参数的最佳值或接近最佳值。将所有模型的性能与能源和自然资源部（MENR）的预测进行比较。结果表明，HS算法可用于能量建模，但需要SA才能获得HS参数的最佳值。与MENR预测相比，HASTEDE的二次形式将高估运输部门的能耗约26％，而线性和指数形式则低估约21％。这可能是由于建模过程和模型的选定参数而发生的，但是确定运输部门能耗的上限值和下限值将为制定能源政策提供框架和灵活性。

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