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External costs from electricity generation of China up to 2030 in energy and abatement scenarios

机译：能源和减排情景中至2030年中国发电的外部成本

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摘要

This paper presents estimated external costs of electricity generation in China under different scenarios of long-term energy and environmental policies. Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) software is used to develop a simple model of electricity demand and to estimate gross electricity generation in China up to 2030 under these scenarios. Because external costs for unit of electricity from fossil fuel will vary in different government regulation periods, airborne pollutant external costs of SO_2, NO_x, PM_(10), and CO_2 from fired power plants are then estimated based on emission inventories and environmental cost for unit of pollutants, while external costs of non-fossil power generation are evaluated with external cost for unit of electricity. The developed model is run to study the impact of different energy efficiency and environmental abatement policy initiatives that would reduce total energy requirement and also reduce external costs of electricity generation. It is shown that external costs of electricity generation may reduce 24-55% with three energy policies scenarios and may further reduce by 20.9-26.7% with two environmental policies scenarios. The total reduction of external costs may reach 58.2%.
机译：本文介绍了在长期能源和环境政策的不同情景下，中国发电的外部成本估算。在这些情况下，远程能源替代计划（LEAP）软件用于开发简单的电力需求模型，并估算到2030年中国的总发电量。由于来自化石燃料的电力单位的外部成本在不同的政府法规期限内会有所不同，因此，根据排放清单和单位的环境成本，估算来自火电厂的空气中污染物SO_2，NO_x，PM_（10）和CO_2的外部成本污染物，而非化石发电的外部成本则以单位电力的外部成本进行评估。运行开发的模型来研究不同的能源效率和环境减排政策倡议的影响，这些倡议将减少总能源需求并降低发电的外部成本。结果表明，在三种能源政策情景下，发电的外部成本可降低24-5％，而在两种环境政策情景下可进一步降低20.9-26.7％。外部成本的总减少可能达到58.2％。

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