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An Analytical Network Process (ANP) evaluation of alternative fuels for electricity generation in Turkey

机译：土耳其发电用替代燃料的分析网络过程（ANP）评估

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摘要

In this paper, we present an Analytical Network Process (ANP) model to determine the best fuel mix for electricity generation in Turkey from a sustainable development perspective. The proposed model is implemented in two alternative scenarios. These scenarios are structured along the lines of classification between weak and strong sustainability, and therefore reflect two basic dimensions of sustainability of energy production—environmental protection and sustainable supply of energy resources. The results of the study indicate the gap between goals of sustainable development and energy policies of Turkey in terms of energy security and environmental degradation. Under all alternative scenarios of our model, the highest value alternative is hydropower—domestic, renewable source— while the Turkish electricity sector mainly relies on imported natural gas. The share of nuclear energy is in the range of 8.12-10.21% in our model results, although nuclear energy is not available yet. The calculated percentages of renewable fuels (biomass, geothermal, wind, solar) are 35.7% and 28.9% for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, respectively, while the total percentage of these fuels is 0.18% of the installed capacity of Turkey. The results of our model suggest that the share of renewable fuels in installed capacity should be increased to achieve sustainable development.
机译：在本文中，我们提出了一个分析网络过程（ANP）模型，用于从可持续发展的角度确定土耳其最佳的发电燃料组合。建议的模型在两种替代方案中实现。这些方案是根据弱和强可持续性之间的分类来构造的，因此反映了能源生产可持续性的两个基本方面，即环境保护和能源的可持续供应。研究结果表明，在能源安全和环境退化方面，土耳其的可持续发展目标与能源政策之间存在差距。在我们模型的所有替代方案下，具有最高价值的替代方案是水力发电（国内可再生能源），而土耳其电力部门则主要依靠进口天然气。尽管我们尚无法获得核能，但在我们的模型结果中，核能的份额在8.12-10.21％的范围内。方案1和方案2的可再生燃料（生物质，地热，风能，太阳能）的计算百分比分别为35.7％和28.9％，而这些燃料的总百分比为土耳其装机容量的0.18％。我们模型的结果表明，应增加可再生燃料在装机容量中的份额，以实现可持续发展。

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