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Assessment of the relationship between oil prices and US oil stocks

机译：评估油价与美国石油库存之间的关系

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摘要

This paper qualitatively and quantitatively analyzes the relationship between US monthly ending oil stocks position with that of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices from February 1995 to July 2004. The paper concludes if other things are held constant, WTI is inversely related to the petroleum products (PPP), combined petroleum products and crude oil (CPPP), crude oil alone (Crude), total oil stocks including petroleum products, crude oil and strategic petroleum reserves SPR (Total), total gasoline (TGO), total distillate (TDO). It could not establish a statistically significant and negative relationship with SPR when run alone. One percent increase (decrease) in CPPP, PPP, Crude, Total, TGO and TDO leads to decrease (increase) in WTI, respectively, by 0.70, 0.43, 0.37, 0.97, 0.26 and 0.21 percent. Oil prices are largely influenced by total crude and Crude and PPP inventories levels while modestly with variations in gasoline and distillate stocks levels. Despite a healthy increase of over 22 percent in SPR from January 2001 to April 2004, it did not result in easing of oil prices. Primarily because SPR are meant for security of supply concern and are only released under extreme conditions by the President of United States, they are neither meant for the purposes of balancing supply-demand gap nor for the stability of oil prices. The aggressive SPR buildup in recent years is related to international terrorism, geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly in Iraq, that encourages US government to enhance its SPR to meet any short-term eventuality. The analyst must keep a close eye on CPPP and the total oil stocks variation to forecast WTI in the short run whilst gasoline and distillate influence oil prices modestly in the short run. SPR, on the other hand, are expected to play a pivotal role in balancing oil prices and in providing a critical resource for the economy in case of any major shortfall in the long run.
机译：本文定性和定量地分析了1995年2月至2004年7月美国月末石油库存状况与西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）油价之间的关系。该论文得出结论，如果其他条件保持不变，WTI与石油成反比。产品（PPP），组合石油产品和原油（CPPP），仅原油（Crude），包括石油产品，原油和战略石油储备SPR的总石油库存（总计），总汽油（TGO），总馏出物（TDO） ）。单独运行时，它无法与SPR建立统计上显着的负相关关系。 CPPP，PPP，原油，总计，TGO和TDO的增加（减少）百分之一分别导致WTI的减少（增加）百分之0.70、0.43、0.37、0.97、0.26％和0.21。石油价格在很大程度上受原油总量，原油和PPP库存水平的影响，而汽油和馏分油库存水平则略有变化。尽管从2001年1月到2004年4月SPR稳步增长了22％以上，但这并没有导致石油价格下跌。主要是因为SPR是为了保障供应安全，并且仅在美国总统的极端条件下发布，因此既不是为了平衡供求缺口，也不是为了维持石油价格。近年来激进的SPR积累与国际恐怖主义，中东特别是伊拉克的地缘政治局势有关，这鼓励美国政府增强其SPR以应对任何短期的可能性。分析师必须密切关注CPPP和总石油库存变化，以便在短期内预测WTI，而汽油和馏分油在短期内对油价的影响较小。另一方面，在长期内出现任何重大短缺的情况下，预计SPR将在平衡油价和为经济提供关键资源方面发挥关键作用。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2006年第17期|p.3327-3333|共7页
  • 作者

    Salman Saif Ghouri;

  • 作者单位

    Business Environment Section, Corporate Planning Department, Qatar Petroleum, Doha, Qatar;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 能源与动力工程;
  • 关键词

    oil; price; stocks;

    机译：石油;价格;库存;

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