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首页> 外文期刊>Energy Policy >Wind power in Finland up to the year 2025-'soft' scenarios based on expert views
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Wind power in Finland up to the year 2025-'soft' scenarios based on expert views

机译：根据专家观点，芬兰到2025年的风力发电将呈现“软”情景

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摘要

In this article we present a method of constructing 'soft' scenarios applied to the wind power development in Finland up to the year 2025. We asked 14 experts to describe probable and preferable futures using a quantitative questionnaire and qualitative interviews. Wind power production grows in all scenarios but there were differences in the order of magnitude of 10. The growth rate of electricity consumption slows down in all scenarios. Qualitative arguments varied even within clusters, with wind power policy emerging as the main dividing factor. The differences revealed diverse values and political objectives, as well as great uncertainties in assumptions about future developments. These influence wind power policy and were also believed to have contributed to the slow development of wind power in Finland. Re-thinking of the Finnish wind power policy is recommended. The 'soft' scenario method is considered valuable in finding diverse views, constructing transparent scenarios and assisting energy policy making.
机译：在本文中，我们介绍了一种构建“软”情景的方法，该情景适用于芬兰直至2025年的风电开发。我们要求14位专家使用定量问卷和定性访谈来描述可能的和更可取的未来。在所有情况下，风电产量都在增长，但差异在10个数量级。在所有情况下，电力消耗的增长率都在放缓。甚至在集群内部，定性论据也各不相同，而风力发电政策正在成为主要的划分因素。分歧显示出不同的价值观和政治目标，以及对未来发展的假设存在很大的不确定性。这些因素影响了风力发电政策，也被认为是导致芬兰风力发电发展缓慢的原因。建议重新考虑芬兰的风电政策。 “软”方案方法被认为在寻找不同观点，构建透明方案和协助制定能源政策方面非常有价值。

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