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Climate-related electricity demand-side management in oil-exporting countries—the case of the United Arab Emirates

机译：石油输出国与气候有关的电力需求侧管理—以阿拉伯联合酋长国为例

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摘要

The oil crisis of the 1970s has increased the concern about the continuity of oil imports flow to major oil-importing developed countries. Numerous policy measures including electricity demand-side management (DSM) programs have been adopted in such countries. These measures aim at reducing the growing need for electricity power that increases the dependency on imported foreign oil and damages the environment. On the other hand, the perception that energy can be obtained at very low cost in oil-rich countries led to less attention being paid to the potential of DSM policies in these countries. This paper discusses such potential using the case of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Since air conditioning is a major source of electric energy consumption, the relationship between climate conditions and electric energy consumption is considered. An electricity demand model is constructed using time series techniques. The fitted model seems to represent these relationships rather well. Forecasts for electricity consumption using the estimated model indicate that a small reduction in cooling degrees requirement might induce a significant reduction in electric energy demand. Hence, a DSM program is proposed with policy actions to include, among others, measures to reduce cooling degrees requirement.
机译：1970年代的石油危机使人们更加担心向主要石油进口发达国家的石油进口的连续性。在这些国家中已经采取了包括电力需求侧管理（DSM）计划在内的许多政策措施。这些措施旨在减少对电力的日益增长的需求，这种需求增加了对进口外国石油的依赖并破坏了环境。另一方面，人们认为石油丰富的国家可以以非常低的成本获得能源，这导致人们对这些国家的帝斯曼政策潜力的关注减少了。本文以阿拉伯联合酋长国（UAE）为例讨论这种潜力。由于空调是电能消耗的主要来源，因此考虑了气候条件和电能消耗之间的关系。使用时间序列技术构建电力需求模型。拟合模型似乎很好地表示了这些关系。使用估计的模型进行的用电量预测表明，冷却程度要求的小幅下降可能会导致电能需求的大幅下降。因此，提出了一项DSM计划，其政策措施包括降低冷却程度要求的措施等。

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