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Optimizing the level of renewable electric R&D expenditures using real options analysis

机译：使用实物期权分析优化可再生电力研发支出的水平

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One of the primary objectives of the United States' federal non-hydro renewable electric R&D program is to promote the development of technologies that have the potential to provide consumers with stable and secure energy supplies. In order to quantify the benefits provided by continued federal renewable electric R&D, this paper uses "real option" pricing techniques to estimate the value of renewable electric technologies in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices. Within the real options analysis framework, the current value of expected future supply from renewable electric technologies, net of federal R&D expenditures, is estimated to he $30.6 billion. Of this value, 86% can be attributed to past federal R&D efforts, and 14% can be attributed to future federal R&D efforts, assuming continued federal R&D funding at $300 million/yr. In addition, real options analysis shows that the value of renewable electric technologies increases as current and future R&D funding levels increase. This indicates that the current level of federal renewable electric R&D funding is sub-optimal.
机译：美国联邦非水可再生电力研发计划的主要目标之一是促进技术的发展，这些技术有可能为消费者提供稳定和安全的能源供应。为了量化持续的联邦可再生电力研发所带来的收益，在面对不确定的化石燃料价格的情况下，本文使用“实物期权”定价技术来估算可再生电力技术的价值。在实物期权分析框架内，扣除联邦研发支出，可再生能源技术预期未来供应的现值估计为306亿美元。在此价值中，假设联邦政府每年继续提供3亿美元的研发资金，其中86％可以归因于过去的联邦R＆D努力，而14％可以归因于未来的联邦R＆D努力。此外，实物期权分析表明，随着当前和未来研发资金水平的提高，可再生电力技术的价值也随之增加。这表明当前联邦可再生电力研发资金水平不理想。

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