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Market diffusion of household PV systems: Insights using the Bass model and solar water heaters market data

机译：家用光伏系统的市场扩散：使用低音模型和太阳能热水器市场数据见解

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This paper aims to present insights about distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation technology diffusion in the household market. A quantitative approach using the Bass model to project distributed PV systems adoption is chosen to base and conduct the analysis. Since distributed PV in Brazil still presents a very small market penetration, historical data is still insufficient to obtain robust estimates. Therefore, parameters from PV markets of other countries and parameters from the solar water heaters (SWH) market in Brazil are used in the analysis. The latter approach is carefully justified. A comparative analysis of distributed PV and SWH market features indicates that SWH diffusion parameters lead to a better representation of innovators behavior for residential PV adoption in Brazil than the parameters borrowed from other countries, which are used by the official projections performed by the Brazilian regulator of the electricity sector. Moreover, we propose a different approach for estimating the final potential market. We discuss the limitations of the official projections, since results indicate that official projections overestimated the diffusion of residential PV market in the early years. Finally, it is suggested that inaccurate signals could be given to stakeholders. (C) 2020 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
机译：本文旨在在家庭市场上展示关于分布式光伏（PV）代技术扩散的见解。选择使用BASS模型的定量方法，以将分布式光伏系统采用采用，并进行分析。由于在巴西的分布式PV仍然具有很小的市场渗透，历史数据仍然不足以获得强大的估计。因此，在分析中使用来自其他国家/地区的PV市场和来自巴西太阳能热水器（SWH）市场的参数的参数。后一种方法是仔细证明的。分布式PV和SWH市场特征的比较分析表明，SWH扩散参数导致在巴西的住宅光伏采用的创新者行为更好地表达，而不是其他国家的参数，由巴西监管机构进行的官方预测使用电力部门。此外，我们提出了一种估计最终潜在市场的不同方法。我们讨论了官方预测的局限性，因为结果表明，官方预测高估了早期住宅光伏市场的扩散。最后，建议可以向利益相关者提供不准确的信号。 （c）2020国际能源倡议。由elsevier Inc.出版的所有权利保留。

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