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China's dependency on foreign oil will exceed 80% by 2030: Developing a novel NMGM-ARIMA to forecast China's foreign oil dependence from two dimensions

机译：到2030年，中国对外国石油的依赖性将超过80％：开发一种新颖的NMGM-ARIMA，从两个维度预测中国对外国石油的依赖性

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摘要

China is the world's largest net importer of oil and the second largest oil consumer; consequently, changes of China's foreign oil dependence significantly impact both the Chinese and the international oil market. To enhance the forecasting ability of China's foreign oil dependence, this study combines the nonlinear metabolic grey model (NMGM) with the linear autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), thus obtaining the combined NMGM-ARIMA model. The proposed technique uses the linear ARIMA to correct NMGM forecasting residuals, thus improving forecasting accuracy. The proposed technique achieves a mean absolute error of 2.1-2.3%, reflecting its high reliability. The proposed NMGM-ARIMA was used to forecast China's foreign oil dependence for the period of 2017-2030 from two dimensions. For the first dimension, the gap between China's oil demand and supply was forecast. To fill this gap, China has to import oil; therefore, this gap is responsible for China's foreign oil dependence. For the second dimension, the change of China's foreign oil dependence level was directly forecast. Both dimensions indicate a similar conclusion, namely that the Chinese foreign oil dependence level will increase from 65% in 2016 to over 80% in 2030. A high level of 80% dependence on foreign oil would bring major concern to China. The policy recommendations given at the end of the paper will help China's decision makers respond appropriately. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：中国是世界上最大的石油净进口国和第二大石油消费国。因此，中国对外国石油依赖的变化极大地影响了中国和国际石油市场。为了提高中国对外石油依赖的预测能力，本研究将非线性代谢灰色模型（NMGM）与线性自回归综合移动平均模型（ARIMA）相结合，从而获得了组合的NMGM-ARIMA模型。所提出的技术使用线性ARIMA校正NMGM预测残差，从而提高了预测精度。所提出的技术实现了2.1-2.3％的平均绝对误差，反映了其高可靠性。拟议的NMGM-ARIMA用于从两个维度预测2017年至2030年中国对外国石油的依赖。对于第一个维度，预测了中国石油需求与供应之间的差距。为了填补这一缺口，中国必须进口石油。因此，这种差距是造成中国对外国石油依赖的原因。对于第二维，直接预测了中国对外国石油依赖程度的变化。这两个方面都表明了类似的结论，即中国对外国石油的依赖程度将从2016年的65％增加到2030年的80％以上。对外国石油的高度依赖80％的高度依赖将使中国倍感担忧。本文末尾提出的政策建议将有助于中国的决策者做出适当的反应。 （C）2018 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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