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Assessment of the impact of climate change on hydropower potential in the Nanliujiang River basin of China

机译：中国南流江流域气候变化对水电潜力的影响评估

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This study presents a model-based approach for assessing the impact of climate change on hydropower potential in the Nanliujiang River Basin of China. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model was proved to be able to do a good runoff simulation after 1000 times of calibration and validation, while it has greater uncertainty in the simulation of high flow and low flow. Coupling the VIC model with five climate models, the spatial and temporal distributions of water resources in the future are analyzed, and the uncertainty analysis shows that the multi-model ensemble results can more reliably reflect future climate change. Then, the hydropower potential of the whole river basin in the future is analyzed in order to allow for a more realistic picture of future hydropower planning. The results of this study indicate that, different degrees of future alterations in river discharge and the spatial and temporal distributions of water resources have to be expected, leading to an increase of 7.7%-15.6% in hydropower potentials under the scenario of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
机译：本研究提出了一种基于模型的方法，用于评估气候变化对中国南流江流域水电潜力的影响。变渗透能力（VIC）水文模型经1000次标定和验证，能够很好地模拟径流，而在高流量和低流量的模拟中具有更大的不确定性。将VIC模型与5种气候模型相结合，分析了未来水资源的时空分布，不确定性分析表明，多模型集成结果可以更可靠地反映未来的气候变化。然后，分析整个流域未来的水电潜力，以便对未来的水电规划有一个更现实的了解。研究结果表明，在RCP2.6情景下，未来的河流流量变化和水资源的时空分布将有不同程度的预期，导致水电潜力增加7.7％-15.6％。 ，RCP4.5和RCP8.5。 （C）2018由Elsevier Ltd.发布

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