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The impact of country risk on energy trade patterns based on complex network and panel regression analyses

机译：基于复杂网络和面板回归分析的国家风险对能源贸易模式的影响

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摘要

As an important component of developing strategies for most countries, global energy trade is easily affected by country risk. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the impact of country risk on energy trade patterns. This study analyzes the trade patterns of energy importers and exporters from the network perspective, and further explores the impacts of different kinds of country risk (political risk and economic risk) on trade patterns in a global sample from 2000 to 2016. Network analysis shows that in the global energy market, countries have different roles and occupy different central positions, with China and Russia being the most important countries. Panel regression analysis reveals that country risk significantly affects the trade patterns of energy importers and exporters. Importers should focus on the negative impacts of the economic risk, which decreases the importers? resource anti-control ability and worsens their relationships with important countries. For exporters, political and economic risk have a negative impact on their total trade volume and their resource control ability. This study suggests that countries identify their trade patterns and pay more attention to the driving force of country risk in the formation of energy trade patterns. ? 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：作为发展大多数国家的战略的重要组成部分，全球能源贸易容易受到国家风险的影响。因此，有必要确定国家风险对能源贸易模式的影响。本研究分析了从网络视角的能源进口商和​​出口商的贸易模式，从2000年至2016年开始探讨了不同各种国家风险（政治风险和经济风险）对贸易模式的影响。网络分析表明在全球能源市场中，各国具有不同的作用，占据不同的中央职位，与中国和俄罗斯成为最重要的国家。面板回归分析表明，国家风险大大影响了能源进出口商和出口商的贸易模式。进口商应专注于经济风险的负面影响，减少进口商？资源反控制能力，并与重要国家的关系恶化。对于出口商而言，政治和经济风险对其总贸易额及其资源控制能力产生负面影响。本研究表明，各国确定其贸易模式，并更加注重国家风险的推动能源贸易模式的推动力。还2021 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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  • 来源
    《Energy》 |2021年第1期|119979.1-119979.11|共11页
  • 作者

    Zhang Hongwei; Wang Ying; Yang Cai; Guo Yaoqi;

  • 作者单位

    Cent South Univ Sch Math & Stat Changsha 410083 Peoples R China|Cent South Univ Inst Met Resources Strategy Changsha 410083 Peoples R China;

    Cent South Univ Sch Math & Stat Changsha 410083 Peoples R China;

    Hunan Univ Sch Business Adm Changsha 410082 Peoples R China;

    Cent South Univ Sch Math & Stat Changsha 410083 Peoples R China|Cent South Univ Inst Met Resources Strategy Changsha 410083 Peoples R China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Energy trade patterns; Country risk; Complex network; Panel regression;

    机译：能源贸易模式;国家风险;复杂网络;面板回归;

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