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Optimal structure adjustment strategy, emission reduction potential and utilization efficiency of fossil energies in China

机译：中国化石能量的最佳结构调整策略，减排潜力和利用效率

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摘要

From the perspective of low-carbon economy (LCE), this paper explores the optimal structure adjustment strategy, emission reduction potential and utilization efficiency of fossil energies (coal, petroleum, and natural gas) for 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019. A mixed integer data envelopment analysis model is proposed to identify the optimal structure adjustment and the potential emission reduction. Then, a new total-factor energy efficiency (TFEE) index based on energy structure adjustment is constructed to statically examine the utilization efficiencies of the three fossil energies. Finally, a novel calculation method of global Malmquist index is presented to dynamically analyze the energy productivity change. The results demonstrate that more than half of the provinces have the potential to reduce coal consumption, while for petroleum and natural gas, the optimal adjustment of different provinces is diverse. The CO2 emission reduction brought about by the energy structure adjustment accounts for about 11% of the emission, and the emission reduction potential of central and western regions is significantly larger than that of eastern region. Technological progress is the main driving of productivity improvement for both LCE and three fossil energies. However, significant differences can be found in the management level of different fossil energies among provinces. (C) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：从低碳经济（LCE）的角度来看，本文从2010年到2019年探讨了中国化石能量（煤炭，石油，天然气）的最佳结构调整策略，减排潜力和利用效率，从2010年到2019年。建议混合整数数据包络分析模型识别最佳结构调整和潜在的排放减少。然后，构建基于能量结构调整的新的总因素能效（TFEE）指数，以静态检查三种化石能量的利用效率。最后，提出了一种新的全局Malmquist指数的计算方法，以动态分析能量生产率变化。结果表明，超过一半的省份有可能降低煤炭消耗，而对于石油和天然气，不同省份的最佳调整是多样的。通过能量结构调整带来的二氧化碳排放减少约占排放的11％，中西部地区的排放降低潜力明显大于东部地区。技术进步是LCE和三种化石能源的生产力提高的主要推动。然而，在省份不同化石能量的管理水平中可以找到显着的差异。 （c）2021 elestvier有限公司保留所有权利。

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