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Evaluation of renewable power sources using a fuzzy MCDM based on cumulative prospect theory: A case in China

机译：基于累积前景理论的模糊MCDM对可再生能源的评估：以中国为例

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Under the global implementation of low-carbon economy, the development of renewable energy becomes an important way of energy saving and emission reduction. Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques are gaining popularity in renewable power sources (RPS) evaluation since this process involves many conflicting criteria. Classical MCDM techniques assume that decisions are conducted in a deterministic environment and decision-makers (DMs) are completely rational while facing with investment risks. However, these hypotheses are not supported in the RPS selection. Fortunately, fuzzy set theory enables to cope with vagueness of evaluations in decision-making process, and cumulative prospect theory can reflect the risk preference of DMs and describe the actual behavior of them. Therefore, in this paper, a fuzzy MCDM technique based on cumulative prospect theory is proposed for selecting the most appropriate RPS in China. A case study in China is carried out to illustrate the rationality and feasibility of the proposed method. The results show that the solar PV is determined to be the best one in China, but the optimal alternative is sensitive to the prospect parameters. This research provides insightful information for the public investors with different risk preferences to evaluate the RPS and select the most appropriate one under uncertain environment. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：在全球低碳经济的实施下，可再生能源的发展成为节能减排的重要途径。多标准决策（MCDM）技术在可再生能源（RPS）评估中越来越受欢迎，因为此过程涉及许多相互矛盾的标准。经典的MCDM技术假设决策是在确定性环境中进行的，而决策者（DM）完全理性，同时面临投资风险。但是，RPS选择不支持这些假设。幸运的是，模糊集理论可以应对决策过程中评估的模糊性，累积前景理论可以反映DM的风险偏好并描述DM的实际行为。因此，本文提出了一种基于累积前景理论的模糊MCDM技术来选择中国最合适的RPS。在中国进行了案例研究，说明了该方法的合理性和可行性。结果表明，太阳能光伏被确定为中国最好的太阳能，但最佳替代方案对前景参数敏感。这项研究为具有不同风险偏好的公共投资者提供了有见地的信息，以评估RPS并在不确定的环境中选择最合适的RPS。 （C）2018 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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