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Preliminary exploration on low-carbon technology roadmap of China's power sector

机译：中国电力行业低碳技术路线图的初步探索

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摘要

Climate change poses huge challenges to the sustainable development of human society. As a major CO_2 emission source, decarbonization of power sector is fundamental for CO_2 emission abatement. Therefore, considering the "carbon lock-in" effects, it's critical to formulate an appropriate roadmap for low-carbon generation technologies. In this paper, key low-carbon technology solutions are firstly identified according to their developing prospects and the fundamental realities of China's power sector. Then, costs, reduction effects and potentials for the key technology options are evaluated. On this basis, typical scenarios are selected and a scenario set is established which identifies and incorporates the key low carbon factors, and a multi-scenario analysis is implemented to China's power sector based on a comprehensive power mix planning model. Then, contributions of CO_2 reduction among the key technology solutions are revealed. Prospect for CO_2 emission reduction is discussed, which informs the possible emission trajectories towards 2030. Finally, low-carbon technology roadmaps under specific scenarios are elaborated, which implies corresponding optimal evolution of power generation mix.
机译：气候变化对人类社会的可持续发展提出了巨大的挑战。作为主要的CO_2排放源，电力部门的脱碳对于减少CO_2排放至关重要。因此，考虑到“碳锁定”效应，为低碳发电技术制定适当的路线图至关重要。本文首先根据其发展前景和中国电力行业的基本现实，确定了关键的低碳技术解决方案。然后，评估成本，减少效果以及关键技术选择的潜力。在此基础上，选择典型的情景并建立一个情景集，以识别并结合关键的低碳因素，并基于全面的电力结构规划模型对中国电力行业进行多情景分析。然后，揭示了关键技术解决方案中减少CO_2的贡献。讨论了减少CO_2排放的前景，这为2030年之前的可能排放轨迹提供了依据。最后，详细阐述了特定情景下的低碳技术路线图，这意味着相应的发电混合动力最佳发展。

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  • 来源
    《Energy》 |2011年第3期|p.1500-1512|共13页
  • 作者

    Qixin Chen; Chongqing Kang; Qing Xia; Dabo Guan;

  • 作者单位

    State Key Laboratory of Power System, Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Power System, Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Power System, Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;

    Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 9EP, UK;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    low-carbon technologies; technology roadmap; power mix planning; scenario analysis; carbon capture and storage;

    机译：低碳技术;技术路线图;电力结构规划;情景分析;碳捕集与封存;

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