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Task estimating: completion time versus team size

机译：任务估计：完成时间与团队规模

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摘要

A careful estimate of a certain task indicated that it could be completed by four engineers in six months, so the completion effort was twenty-four engineer-months. It is logical to assume therefore that six engineers will complete the task in four months, and eight engineers in three months. The author shows that this assumption is wrong, and offers a reason as to why this is so. The article shows that the human effort required to complete a divisible task is a function both of the nature of the task and of the number of people assigned to it. The fact that task team size enters into effort-to-complete calculations both exposes the widely-employed constant effort fallacy and substantially complicates the estimating problem. The estimating technique presented here is a useful and pragmatic solution to this problem. It turns on the twin concepts of a sparse 'minimum people' estimate and a factor which measures task complexity and the degree of sub-task coupling.
机译：对某项任务的仔细估算表明，它可以由四个工程师在六个月内完成，因此完成工作为二十四个工程师月。因此，合理的假设是六名工程师将在四个月内完成任务，八名工程师将在三个月内完成任务。作者证明了这种假设是错误的，并提供了这样做的理由。该文章表明，完成一项可分割任务所需的人力是任务性质和指派给它的人数的函数。任务团队规模进入完成工作量计算这一事实既暴露了广泛使用的持续努力谬论，又使估算问题大为复杂。本文介绍的估算技术是解决此问题的实用且实用的解决方案。它开启了稀疏的“最少人数”估计和度量任务复杂性以及子任务耦合程度的因素的双重概念。

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