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Poverty, rural population distribution and climate change

机译:贫困,农村人口分布与气候变化

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Our spatial analysis indicates that in 2000 over one third of the rural population in developing countries was located on less favored agricultural land and areas, which are constrained by biophysical conditions or poor market access. We examine whether these spatial distributions of rural population in 2000 influence subsequent changes in the rate of poverty from 2000 to 2012 in 83 developing countries. We find no evidence of a direct impact on changes in poverty, but there is a significant indirect impact via the elasticity of poverty reduction with respect to growth. If climate change leads to more people concentrated in these areas, or an increase in unfavorable agricultural regions, then the poverty-reducing impact of overall per capita income growth could be further weakened. Reducing poverty will require targeting rural populations in less favored lands and remote areas and encouraging out-migration.
机译:我们的空间分析表明,在2000年,发展中国家三分之一以上的农村人口位于较不受欢迎的农业用地和地区,这些地区受到生物物理条件或市场准入条件的限制。我们研究了2000年农村人口的这些空间分布是否影响了83个发展中国家从2000年到2012年的贫困率的后续变化。我们没有发现对贫困变化有直接影响的证据,但是通过减少贫困对经济增长的弹性会产生重大的间接影响。如果气候变化导致更多的人集中在这些地区,或者增加不利的农业地区,那么人均总收入增长对减贫的影响可能会进一步减弱。减少贫困将需要针对偏爱土地和偏远地区的农村人口,并鼓励移民。

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