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A hurricane wind risk and loss assessment of Caribbean agriculture

机译：加勒比农业飓风风的风险和损失评估

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摘要

Hurricanes act as large external shocks potentially causing considerable damage to agriculture in the Caribbean. While a number of studies have estimated their historic economic impact, arguably the wider community and policy makers are more concerned about their future risk and potential losses, since this type of information is useful for disaster preparedness and mitigation strategy and policy. This paper implements a new approach to undertaking a quantitative wind risk and loss assessment of agriculture in Caribbean island economies. The authors construct an expected loss function that uses synthetically generated, and historical, hurricane tracks within a wind field model that takes cropland exposure derived from satellite data into consideration. The results indicate that expected wind losses are potentially large but vary considerably across the region, where the smaller islands are considerably more likely to be negatively impacted. Moreover, we find that the structure of the agricultural sector can be important in terms of vulnerability.
机译：飓风是巨大的外部冲击，有可能对加勒比地区的农业造成相当大的破坏。尽管许多研究估计了其历史性的经济影响，但可以说，更广泛的社区和决策者更担心其未来的风险和潜在损失，因为这类信息对于防灾和减灾战略与政策很有用。本文采用了一种新的方法来对加勒比岛国的农业进行风能风险定量评估。作者构建了一个预期损失函数，该函数在风场模型中使用了合成生成的历史飓风航迹，该航迹考虑了从卫星数据得出的农田暴露。结果表明，预期的风损可能很大，但在整个地区变化很大，在较小的岛屿上，受到负面影响的可能性更大。此外，我们发现，就脆弱性而言，农业部门的结构可能很重要。

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  • 来源
    《Environment and Development Economics》 |2017年第1期|84-106|共23页
  • 作者

    Mohan Preeya; Strobl Eric;

  • 作者单位

    Univ West Indies, Sir Arthur Lewis Inst Social & Econ Studies, Kingston, Jamaica;

    Aix Marseille Sch Econ, 2 Rue Charite, F-13002 Marseille, France|Ctr Vieille Charite, IPAG Res Lab, 2 Rue Charite, F-13002 Marseille, France;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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