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Does development reduce fatalities from natural disasters? New evidence for floods

机译：发展会减少自然灾害造成的死亡吗？洪水的新证据

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We analyze the impact of development on flood fatalities using a new data set of 2,171 large floods in 92 countries between 1985 and 2008. Our results challenge the conventional wisdom that development results in fewer fatalities during natural disasters. Results indicating that higher income and better governance reduce fatalities during flood events do not hold up when unobserved country heterogeneity and within-country correlation of standard errors are taken into account. We find that income does have a significant, indirect effect on flood fatalities by affecting flood frequency and flood magnitude, but this effect is nonmonotonic, with net reductions in fatalities occurring only in lower income countries. We find little evidence that improved governance affects flood fatalities either directly or indirectly.
机译：我们使用1985年至2008年之间92个国家的2171次大洪灾的新数据集来分析发展对洪灾死亡的影响。我们的结果挑战了传统观念，即发展在自然灾害期间减少了死亡人数。如果考虑到未观察到的国家异质性和国家内部标准误的相关性，则结果表明，较高的收入和更好的治理可以减少洪水期间的死亡人数。我们发现收入确实通过影响洪水频率和洪水幅度对洪水死亡人数具有显着，间接的影响，但是这种影响是非单调的，死亡人数的净减少仅发生在低收入国家。我们几乎没有证据表明改善治理会直接或间接影响洪水死亡人数。

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