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Infectious disease, development, and climate change: a scenario analysis

机译：传染病，发展与气候变化：情景分析

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We study the effects of development and climate change on infectious diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa. Infant mortality and infectious disease are closely related, but there are better data for the former. In an international cross-section, per capita income, literacy, and absolute poverty significantly affect infant mortality. We use scenarios of these three determinants and of climate change to project the future incidence of malaria, assuming it to change proportionally to infant mortality. Malaria deaths will first increase, because of population growth and climate change, but then fall, because of development. This pattern is robust to the choice of scenario, parameters, and starting conditions; and it holds for diarrhoea, schistosomiasis, and dengue fever as well. However, the timing and level of the mortality peak is very sensitive to assumptions. Climate change is important in the medium term, but dominated in the long term by development. As climate can only be changed with a substantial delay, development is the preferred strategy to reduce infectious diseases even if they are exacerbated by climate change. Development can, in particular, support the needed strengthening of disease control programs in the short run and thereby increase the capacity to cope with projected increases in infectious diseases over the medium to long term. This conclusion must, however, be viewed with caution, because development, even of the sort envisioned in the underlying socio-economic scenarios, is by no means certain.
机译：我们研究了撒哈拉以南非洲地区发展和气候变化对传染病的影响。婴儿死亡率和传染病密切相关，但前者有更好的数据。在国际层面上，人均收入，识字率和绝对贫困严重影响婴儿死亡率。假设疟疾与婴儿死亡率成比例地变化，我们将使用这三个决定因素和气候变化的情景来预测未来的疟疾发病率。由于人口增长和气候变化，疟疾死亡人数将首先增加，但由于发展，其死亡率将下降。这种模式对于方案，参数和起始条件的选择是可靠的。它也适用于腹泻，血吸虫病和登革热。但是，死亡率高峰的时间和水平对假设非常敏感。中期而言，气候变化很重要，但从长远来看，其变化主要由发展决定。由于只能大幅度延迟地改变气候，因此即使减少因气候变化而加剧的传染病，发展也是减少传染病的首选策略。发展尤其可以在短期内支持需要加强的疾病控制计划，从而提高应对中长期传染病的能力。但是，必须谨慎地看待这个结论，因为即使是潜在的社会经济情景所设想的那种发展，也绝不是确定的。

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