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The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Findings from Households in Vietnam

机译:气候变化对农业的影响:越南家庭的调查结果

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摘要

This paper examines farm household-level impacts of climate change by examining the relationship between climatic variables and Vietnamese agricultural output. The Ricardian technique is applied with panel data which accounts for both adaptation strategies and household characteristics. This study proposes a two-stage Hsiao model to correct for collinearity between climatic variables and individual effects. The results show that in the dry season, increases in temperatures are beneficial to all farms in the warmer southern regions, while increases in precipitation will damage only irrigated farms in the Central and South regions. The impact of higher temperature in the wet season is similar, except that it will negatively affect net revenue of irrigated farms in the long run. More rainfall in the wet season will increase net revenue in the North region only. Finally, this study combines the estimated results with future climate scenarios to predict how future changes in climate will affect farmers on aggregate.
机译:本文通过考察气候变量与越南农业产出之间的关系,考察了农户对气候变化的影响。 Ricardian技术与面板数据一起应用,该数据既考虑了适应策略又考虑了家庭特征。这项研究提出了一个两阶段的Hsiao模型来校正气候变量和个体影响之间的共线性。结果表明,在干旱季节,温度升高对南部温暖地区的所有农场都有利,而降水量的增加只会损害中部和南部地区的灌溉农场。湿季温度升高的影响与之相似,但从长远来看,这将对灌溉农场的净收入产生负面影响。雨季雨水增多,只会增加北部地区的净收入。最后,本研究将估算结果与未来气候情景相结合,以预测未来气候变化将如何对总体农民产生影响。

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