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Is Shale Gas a Good Bridge to Renewables? An Application to Europe

机译：页岩气是通向可再生能源的良好桥梁吗？在欧洲的应用

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This paper explores whether climate policy justifies developing more shale gas and addresses the question of a potential arbitrage between shale gas development and the transition to clean energy. We construct a Hotelling-like model where electricity may be produced by three perfectly substitutable sources: an abundant dirty resource (coal), a non-renewable less polluting resource (shale gas), and an abundant clean resource (solar). The resources differ by their carbon contents and their unit costs. Shale gas extraction's technology (fracking) generates local damages. Fixed costs must be paid to develop shale gas and to deploy the clean resource on a large scale. Climate policy takes the form of a carbon budget. We show that, at the optimum, a more stringent climate policy does not always go together with an increase of the quantity of shale gas extracted, and that banning shale gas extraction most often leads to bring forward the development of the clean resource, but not always. We calibrate the model for Europe in order to determine whether shale gas should be extracted and in which amount, and to evaluate the effects of a moratorium on shale gas use.
机译：本文探讨了气候政策是否有理由开发更多的页岩气，并解决了页岩气开发与向清洁能源过渡之间的潜在套利问题。我们构建了类似于Hotelling的模型，其中可以通过三种完全可替代的资源来发电：丰富的肮脏资源（煤炭），不可再生的污染较小的资源（页岩气）和丰富的清洁资源（太阳能）。这些资源的碳含量和单位成本各不相同。页岩气开采技术（压裂）产生局部损害。开发页岩气和大规模部署清洁资源必须支付固定费用。气候政策采取碳预算的形式。我们表明，在最佳状态下，更严格的气候政策并不总是与页岩气开采量的增加并存，而且禁止页岩气开采最常导致清洁资源的开发，但并非如此总是。我们对欧洲模型进行了校准，以确定是否应提取页岩气以及提取量，并评估暂停使用页岩气的影响。

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