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Natural Disasters and Macroeconomic Performance

机译：自然灾害与宏观经济绩效

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摘要

Recent empirical research has shown that output and GDP per capita in the aftermath of natural disasters are not necessarily lower than before the event. In many cases, both are not significantly affected and, surprisingly, sometimes they are found to respond positively to natural disasters. Here, we propose a novel economic theory that explains these observations. Specifically, we show that GDP is driven above its pre-shock level when natural disasters destroy predominantly durable consumption goods (cars, furniture, etc.). Disasters destroying mainly productive capital, in contrast, are predicted to reduce GDP. Insignificant responses of GDP can be expected when disasters destroy both, durable goods and productive capital. We extend the model by a residential housing sector and show that disasters may also have an insignificant impact on GDP when they destroy residential houses and durable goods. We show that disasters, irrespective of whether their impact on GDP is positive, negative, or insignificant, entail considerable losses of aggregate welfare.
机译：最近的经验研究表明，自然灾害后的产出和人均GDP不一定比事件发生前低。在很多情况下，两者都没有受到重大影响，令人惊讶的是，有时发现它们对自然灾害做出了积极反应。在这里，我们提出了一种新颖的经济学理论来解释这些观察结果。具体而言，我们表明，当自然灾害摧毁了主要的耐用消费品（汽车，家具等）时，GDP处于震前水平之上。相比之下，预计破坏主要是生产性资本的灾难将减少GDP。当灾难摧毁耐用品和生产性资本时，可以预见GDP的反应将是微不足道的。我们将模型扩展到住宅部门，并表明灾难在破坏住宅和耐用品时也可能对GDP产生微不足道的影响。我们表明，无论灾难对GDP的影响是正面的，负面的还是微不足道的，灾害都会造成相当大的总体福利损失。

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