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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental & Resource Economics >Combining Risk Attitudes in a Lottery Game and Flood Risk Protection Decisions in a Discrete Choice Experiment
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Combining Risk Attitudes in a Lottery Game and Flood Risk Protection Decisions in a Discrete Choice Experiment

机译：在离散选择实验中结合彩票游戏和洪水风险保护决策的风险态度

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摘要

Decision-making about flood protection is surrounded by outcome uncertainty. In this paper we look at the influence of individual risk attitudes on flood protection decisions. To this end, we combine the results of a lottery game with the findings from a discrete choice experiment focusing on flood risk reduction measures. We find that the inclusion of non-linear probability weighting increases the explanatory power of the choice model. The result is however sensitive to behavioral assumptions about decisions under uncertainty, as well as whether the lottery was played in the loss or gain domain. Including risk attitudes in the probability weighted model decreases marginal willingness to pay for measures with a low to intermediate flood risk reduction capacity and increases marginal willingness to pay for measures with a very high flood risk reduction effect. This has important implications for the social acceptability of flood reduction measures under different baseline conditions.
机译：关于洪水保护的决策被结果不确定性所包围。在本文中，我们了解个人风险态度对防洪决策的影响。为此，我们将彩票游戏的结果与来自洪水风险降低措施的离散选择实验的结果相结合。我们发现包含非线性概率加权增加了选择模型的解释力。然而，结果对关于不确定性的决策的行为假设敏感，以及在损失或增益领域是否播放了彩票。包括概率加权模型的风险态度降低了边际愿意支付低于中间洪水风险降低能力的措施，并提高边际愿意支付措施的措施非常高的洪水风险减少效应。这对不同基线条件下的防洪措施的社会可接受性具有重要意义。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental & Resource Economics》 |2019年第4期|1533-1562|共30页
  • 作者

    Glatt Markus; Brouwer Roy; Logar Ivana;

  • 作者单位

    Eawag Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol Uberlandstr 133 CH-8600 Dubendorf Switzerland|Vrije Univ Amsterdam Dept Environm Econ Amsterdam Netherlands;

    Eawag Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol Uberlandstr 133 CH-8600 Dubendorf Switzerland|Univ Waterloo Dept Econ 200 Univ Ave West Waterloo ON N2L 3G1 Canada|Univ Waterloo Water Inst 200 Univ Ave West Waterloo ON N2L 3G1 Canada|Vrije Univ Amsterdam Dept Environm Econ Amsterdam Netherlands;

    Eawag Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol Uberlandstr 133 CH-8600 Dubendorf Switzerland;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Lottery game; Choice experiment; Flood risk; Bayesian model averaging; Risk attitudes;

    机译：彩票游戏;选择实验;洪水风险;贝叶斯模型平均;风险态度;

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