Do Random Coefficients and Alternative Specific Constants Improve Policy Analysis? An Empirical Investigation of Model Fit and Prediction

Klaiber H. Allen; von Haefen Roger H.

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Do Random Coefficients and Alternative Specific Constants Improve Policy Analysis? An Empirical Investigation of Model Fit and Prediction

机译：随机系数和替代特定常量改善政策分析吗？模型契合与预测的实证研究

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Concerns about unobserved heterogeneityeither in preference or attribute spacehave led environmental economists to turn increasingly to discrete choice models that incorporate random parameters and alternative specific constants. We use four recreation data sets and several empirical specifications to show that although these modeling innovations often lead to substantial improvements in overall model fit, they also generate poor in-sample predictions relative to observed choices. Given the apparent tradeoff between fit and prediction, we then propose and empirically investigate a series of second-best' strategies that attempt to correct for the poor prediction we observe.

机译：对偏好或属性空间LED环境经济学家越来越多地对非合并的关注，以越来越多地转向包括随机参数和替代特定常量的离散选择模型。我们使用四个娱乐数据集和几个经验规范来表明，尽管这些建模创新往往导致整体模型的实质性改进，但它们也会产生相对于观察选择的较差的样本预测。鉴于契合与预测之间的明显权衡，我们建议并经验研究了一系列第二次最佳的策略，试图纠正我们观察到的预测差。

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《Environmental & Resource Economics》 |2019年第1期|75-91|共17页
作者
Klaiber H. Allen; von Haefen Roger H.;
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作者单位

Ohio State Univ Dept Agr Environm & Dev Econ 333 Ag Admin Bldg 2120 Fyffe Rd Columbus OH 43210 USA;

North Carolina State Univ Dept Agr & Resource Econ Box 8109 Raleigh NC 27695 USA;

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正文语种 eng
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关键词
Discrete choice; Recreation demand; Revealed preference; Stated preference; Alternative specific constants; Random parameters; C25; Q51; L83;

机译：离散选择;娱乐需求;揭示偏好;所说的偏好;替代特定常数;随机参数;C25;Q51;L83;

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Do Random Coefficients and Alternative Specific Constants Improve Policy Analysis? An Empirical Investigation of Model Fit and Prediction

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