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Assessing Short-Term and Long-Term Economic and Environmental Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis in France

机译：评估法国Covid-19危机的短期和长期经济和环境影响

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摘要

In response to the COVID-19 health crisis, the French government has imposed drastic lockdown measures for a period of 55 days. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the economic and environmental impacts of these measures in the short and long term. We use a Computable General Equilibrium model designed to assess environmental and energy policies impacts at the macroeconomic and sectoral levels. We find that the lockdown has led to a significant decrease in economic output of 5% of GDP, but a positive environmental impact with a 6.6% reduction in CO(2)emissions in 2020. Both decreases are temporary: economic and environmental indicators return to their baseline trajectory after a few years. CO(2)emissions even end up significantly higher after the COVID-19 crisis when we account for persistently low oil prices. We then investigate whether implementing carbon pricing can still yield positive macroeconomic dividends in the post-COVID recovery. We find that implementing ambitious carbon pricing speeds up economic recovery while significantly reducing CO(2)emissions. By maintaining high fossil fuel prices, carbon taxation reduces the imports of fossil energy and stimulates energy efficiency investments while the full redistribution of tax proceeds does not hamper the recovery.
机译：为了应对Covid-19健康危机，法国政府施加了55天的持续锁定措施。本文在短期和长期内提供了对这些措施的经济和环境影响的定量评估。我们使用可计算的一般均衡模型，旨在评估宏观经济和部门水平的环境和能源政策影响。我们发现锁定导致经济产量的5％的大幅下降，但2020年的二氧化碳排放量减少了6.6％。两次减少是暂时的：经济和环境指标返回几年后他们的基线轨迹。 CO（2）当我们考虑持续低油价后，CO（2）甚至最终结束了Covid-19危机后明显更高。然后，我们调查实施碳定价是否仍然可以在科迪德后恢复中产生积极的宏观经济股息。我们发现，在大大减少CO（2）排放的同时，实施雄心勃勃的碳定价会加快经济复苏。通过维持高化石燃料价格，碳税减少了化石能源的进口，刺激了能效投资，而税收的完全再分布并没有妨碍恢复。

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