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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental & Resource Economics >Valuing Global Ecosystem Services: What Do European Experts Say? Applying the Delphi Method to Contingent Valuation of the Amazon Rainforest
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Valuing Global Ecosystem Services: What Do European Experts Say? Applying the Delphi Method to Contingent Valuation of the Amazon Rainforest

机译：重视全球生态系统服务：欧洲专家怎么说？将德尔菲方法应用于亚马逊雨林的或有评估

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摘要

Valuing global public goods like the Amazon rainforest by stated preference surveys of a representative sample of the global population would be very costly and time consuming. We explore the use of the Delphi Method in contingent valuation (CV) by asking a panel of 49 European environmental valuation experts in two rounds what they think would be the result if a European CV survey of Amazon Rainforest protection plans was conducted. The experts' best guess for the mean willingness-to-pay (WTP) by European households for preserving the current Amazon Rainforest, and thus avoiding a predicted loss in forest area by 2050 from currently 85% to 60% of the original forest in the 1970s, was 28 a,notsign per household annually as an additional income tax. Aggregated over all European households this amounts to about 8.4 billion a,notsign annually. This preliminary estimate indicate that WTP of distant beneficiaries is substantial, and could justify preservation of global ecosystem services where aggregated benefits of the local population often do not exceed the opportunity costs of preservation in terms of lost income from commercial activities. The income elasticity of WTP with respect to per-capita income in the European countries is 0.5-0.6. Recognizing the limitations and assumptions of the Delphi CV method, it could still be a time saving and cost-effective benefit transfer tool for providing international donors with much needed order-of-magnitude estimates of the non-use value of ecosystem services of global significance.
机译：通过对全球人口代表性样本进行有针对性的偏好调查来评估像亚马逊雨林这样的全球公共产品，将非常昂贵且耗时。我们通过在49个欧洲环境评估专家小组中进行了两轮调查，探讨了在特有评估（CV）中使用Delphi方法的问题。如果对亚马逊雨林保护计划进行欧洲CV调查，他们会认为结果如何。专家对欧洲家庭保护当前亚马逊雨林的平均支付意愿（WTP）的最佳猜测，从而避免了到2050年森林面积的预计损失从目前原始森林的85％到60％。 1970年代是28岁，每年每户不征收附加所得税。在所有欧洲家庭中加起来，每年约有84亿人次。这项初步估计表明，远方受益者的支付意愿是巨大的，并且可以证明全球生态系统服务的保护是合理的，因为就当地居民的商业活动造成的收入损失而言，其总收益往往不超过保护的机会成本。在欧洲国家，WTP相对于人均收入的收入弹性为0.5-0.6。认识到Delphi CV方法的局限性和假设，它仍然可以是节省时间和成本效益的收益转移工具，为国际捐助者提供急需的，具有全球意义的生态系统服务非使用价值的数量级估计。

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