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Intertemporal Emission Permits Trading Under Uncertainty and Irreversibility

机译：不确定性和不可逆性下的跨期排放许可证交易

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This paper analyzes the effect of emission permit banking on clean technology investment and abatement under conditions where the stringency of the future cap is uncertain. We examine the problem of heterogeneous firms minimizing the cost of intertemporal emission control in the presence of stochastic future pollution standards and emission permits that are tradable across firms and through time. A firm can invest in clean capital (an improved pollution abatement technology) to reduce its abatement cost. We consider two possibilities: that investment is reversible or irreversible. Uncertainty is captured within a two period model: only the current period cap is known. We show that if banking is positive and marginal abatement costs are sufficiently convex, there will be more abatement and investment in clean technology under uncertainty than there would be under certainty and no banking. These results are at odds with the common belief that uncertainty on future environmental policy is a barrier to investment in clean capital. Moreover, under uncertainty and irreversibility, we find that there are cases where banking enables firms to invest more in clean capital.
机译：本文分析了在未来上限的严格性不确定的情况下，排放许可证库对清洁技术投资和减排的影响。我们研究了存在随机未来污染标准和可在企业之间和整个时间范围内交易的排放许可的情况下，异构企业将跨期排放控制成本降至最低的问题。企业可以投资于清洁资本（一种改进的污染消除技术）以降低其消除成本。我们考虑两种可能性：投资是可逆的或不可逆的。在两个期间模型中捕获不确定性：只有当前期间上限是已知的。我们表明，如果银行业务是积极的，边际减排成本足够凸，那么在不确定性下清洁技术的减排和投资将比在确定性且没有银行业务的情况下要多。这些结果与普遍的看法不一致，即人们认为，未来环境政策的不确定性是清洁资本投资的障碍。此外，在不确定性和不可逆性的情况下，我们发现在某些情况下，银行业务可以使公司对清洁资本进行更多的投资。

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