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Human Development at Risk: Economic Growth with Pollution-Induced Health Shocks

机译：人类发展面临风险：污染造成的健康冲击导致经济增长

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摘要

Risks to human health stemming from polluted air, water, and soil are substantial, especially in the rapidly growing economies. The present paper develops a theoretical framework to study an endogenously growing economy which is subject to pollution-induced health shocks with the health status being an argument of the welfare function. Pollution, arising as a negative externality from production, adversely and randomly affects the regeneration ability of a human body leading to a decline in the overall health status of the population. We include two types of uncertainty surrounding the health status: continuous small-scale fluctuations, driven by the Wiener process, and large-scale shocks or epidemics, driven by the Poisson process. We derive closed-form analytical solutions for the optimal abatement policy and the growth rate of consumption. Devoting a constant fraction of output to emissions abatement delivers the first-best allocation. This fraction is an increasing function of total factor productivity, polluting intensity of production, and damage intensity of both continuous and jump-type shocks. A higher frequency of jumps also calls for more vigorous abatement policies. By contrast, the optimal growth rate of the economy is decreasing in the frequency and intensity of shocks and in the polluting intensity of output. The efficiency of abatement technology has, in general, an ambiguous bearing on both the growth rate and on the abatement share due to the opposing forces of the direct and indirect effects.
机译：空气，水和土壤污染给人类健康带来的风险是巨大的，尤其是在快速增长的经济体中。本文建立了一个理论框架来研究内生增长的经济，这种经济受污染引起的健康冲击的影响，健康状况是福利函数的一个论据。作为生产的负面外部影响而产生的污染会不利地，随机地影响人体的再生能力，从而导致人口总体健康状况下降。我们包括围绕健康状况的两种类型的不确定性：由维纳过程导致的持续的小范围波动，以及由泊松过程引起的大规模的冲击或流行病。我们得出最佳减排政策和消费增长率的封闭式分析解决方案。将恒定比例的产出投入到减排中可提供最佳的分配。该分数是全要素生产率，生产污染强度以及连续和跳跃型冲击的破坏强度的增加函数。更高的跳跃频率也要求采取更加有力的减排政策。相比之下，经济的最佳增长率在冲击的频率和强度以及产出的污染强度上正在降低。由于直接和间接作用的相反作用，减排技术的效率总体上对增长率和减排份额均含糊不清。

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