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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental & Resource Economics >Global Warming and a Potential Tipping Point in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation: The Role of Risk Aversion
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Global Warming and a Potential Tipping Point in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation: The Role of Risk Aversion

机译：全球变暖和大西洋热盐环流的潜在转折点：规避风险的作用

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The risk of catastrophes is one of the greatest threats of climate change. Yet, conventional assumptions shared by many integrated assessment models such as DICE lead to the counterintuitive result that higher concern about climate change risks does not lead to stronger near-term abatement efforts. This paper examines whether this result still holds in a refined DICE model that employs the Epstein-Zin utility specification and that is fully coupled with a dynamic tipping point model describing the evolution of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). Risk is captured by the possibility of a future collapse of the circulation and it is nourished by fat-tailed uncertainty about climate sensitivity. This uncertainty is assumed to resolve in the middle of the second half of this century and the near-term abatement efforts, which are undertaken before that point of time, can be adjusted afterwards. These modelling choices allow posing the question of whether aversion to this specific tipping point risk has a significant effect on near-term policy efforts. The simulations, however, provide evidence that it has little effect. For the more likely climate sensitivity values, a collapse of the circulation would occur in the more distant future. In this case, acting after learning can prevent the catastrophe, implying the remarkable insensitivity of the near-term policy to risk aversion. For the rather unlikely and high climate sensitivity values, the expected damage costs are not great enough to justify taking very costly measures to safeguard the THC. Our simulations also provide some indication that risk aversion might have some effect on near-term policy, if inertia limiting the speed of decarbonisation is accounted for. As it is highly uncertain how restrictive this kind of inertia will be, future research might investigate the effects of risk aversion if additional uncertainty about inertia is considered.
机译：灾难风险是气候变化的最大威胁之一。然而，许多综合评估模型（例如DICE）所共有的常规假设导致了与直觉相反的结果，即对气候变化风险的更高关注并不会导致近期的减排努力。本文研究了这一结果是否仍然适用于采用Epstein-Zin实用规范并且与描述大西洋热盐循环（THC）演变的动态临界点模型完全耦合的精确DICE模型。未来的循环崩溃可能会带来风险，而气候敏感度的不确定性会滋生风险。假定这种不确定性将在本世纪下半叶解决，在此之前进行的近期减排工作可以在以后进行调整。这些模型选择允许提出一个问题，即对这个特定临界点风险的厌恶是否会对近期政策工作产生重大影响。但是，仿真提供了证据表明它几乎没有效果。对于更可能的气候敏感性值，在更遥远的将来会发生循环崩溃。在这种情况下，学习后采取行动可以防止灾难的发生，这意味着近期政策对规避风险的能力非常不敏感。对于不太可能且较高的气候敏感性值，预期的破坏成本还不足以证明采取非常昂贵的措施来保护THC。我们的模拟还提供了一些迹象，表明如果考虑到惯性限制了脱碳速度，那么风险规避可能会对近期政策产生影响。由于高度不确定这种惯性有多严格，因此，如果考虑其他有关惯性的不确定性，则未来的研究可能会调查风险规避的影响。

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