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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental & Resource Economics >Physical and Economic Consequences of Sea-Level Rise: A Coupled GIS and CGE Analysis Under Uncertainties
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Physical and Economic Consequences of Sea-Level Rise: A Coupled GIS and CGE Analysis Under Uncertainties

机译：海平面上升的物理和经济后果：不确定性下的GIS和CGE耦合分析

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摘要

This paper develops a modelling framework that links GEMINI-E3, a multi-regional, multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model with a cost-benefit analysis approach at local level using geographical information system tools to assess the physical and economic consequences of sea-level rise (SLR) in the twenty first century. A set of future scenarios is developed spanning the uncertainties related to global warming, the parameters of semi-empirical SLR estimates, and coastal developments (cropland, urban areas and population). The importance of incorporating uncertainties regarding coastal development is highlighted. The simulation results suggest that the potential development of future coastal areas is a greater source of uncertainty than the parameters of SLR itself in terms of the economic consequences of SLR. At global level, the economic impact of SLR could be significant when loss of productive land along with loss of capital and forced displacement of populations are considered. Furthermore, highly urbanised and densely populated coastal areas of South East Asia, Australia and New Zealand are likely to suffer significantly if no protective measures are taken. Hence, it is suggested that coastal areas needs to be protected to ameliorate the overall welfare cost across various regions.
机译：本文开发了一个建模框架，该框架将GEMINI-E3（一种多区域，多部门可计算的一般均衡模型）与地方一级的成本收益分析方法联系在一起，使用地理信息系统工具评估海平面的物理和经济后果在二十一世纪崛起（SLR）。提出了一系列未来情景，这些情景涉及与全球变暖，SLR半经验估计的参数以及沿海发展（农田，市区和人口）有关的不确定性。强调了纳入有关沿海发展的不确定性的重要性。模拟结果表明，就SLR的经济后果而言，与SLR本身的参数相比，未来沿海地区的潜在发展是更大的不确定性来源。在全球范围内，如果考虑到生产用地的损失以及资本的损失和人口的被迫流离失所，SLR的经济影响可能会很大。此外，如果不采取保护措施，东南亚，澳大利亚和新西兰等高度城市化和人口稠密的沿海地区可能会遭受重大损失。因此，建议需要保护沿海地区，以改善各个地区的整体福利成本。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental & Resource Economics》 |2016年第4期|813-839|共27页
  • 作者

    Joshi Santosh R.; Vielle Marc; Babonneau Frederic; Edwards Neil R.; Holden Philip B.;

  • 作者单位

    Ctr Environm & Resource Econ, Biblioteksgrand 6, S-90187 Umea, Sweden|Umea Univ, Umea Sch Business & Econ, Dept Econ, Biblioteksgrand 6, S-90187 Umea, Sweden;

    Ecole Polytech Fed Lausanne, Lab Environm & Urban Econ LEURE, EPFL ENAC INTER REME, BP 2140,Stn 16, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland;

    Ecole Polytech Fed Lausanne, Lab Environm & Urban Econ LEURE, EPFL ENAC INTER REME, BP 2140,Stn 16, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland|ORDECSYS SARL, Pl Etrier 4, CH-1224 Chene Bougeries, Switzerland;

    Open Univ, Environm Earth & Ecosyst, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, Bucks, England;

    Open Univ, Environm Earth & Ecosyst, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, Bucks, England;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Climate change; Sea-level rise; GIS; Computable general equilibrium model; Coastal impacts; Uncertainty; Adaptation;

    机译：气候变化;海平面上升;GIS;可计算的一般均衡模型;沿海影响;不确定性;适应;

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