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Environmental Kuznets Curve: Tipping Points, Uncertainty and Weak Identification

机译：库兹涅茨环境曲线：临界点，不确定性和弱识别

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摘要

We consider an empirical estimation of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for carbon dioxide and sulphur, with a focus on confidence set estimation of the tipping point. Various econometric-parametric and nonparametric-methods are considered, reflecting the implications of persistence, endogeneity, the necessity of breaking down our panel regionally, trends and temporal instability, and the small number of countries within each panel. In particular, we propose a parametric inference method that corrects for potential weak-identification of the tipping point. Weak identification may occur if the true EKC is linear while a quadratic income term is nevertheless imposed into the estimated equation. Relevant literature to date confirms that non-linearity of the EKC is indeed not granted, which provides the motivation for our work. We also propose a non-parametric counterpart to the parametric confidence set, for sensitivity analysis. Viewed collectively, our results confirm an inverted U-shaped EKC in the OECD countries but generally not elsewhere, although a local-pollutant analysis suggests favorable exceptions beyond the OECD. Our measures of uncertainty confirm that it is difficult to identify economically plausible tipping points. Policy-relevant estimates of the tipping point can nevertheless be recovered from a local-pollutant long-run or non-parametric perspective.
机译：我们考虑对二氧化碳和硫的环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）的经验估计，重点是临界点的置信度估计。考虑了各种计量经济学和非计量经济学的方法，这些方法反映了持久性，内生性，在区域范围内细分我们的小组的必要性，趋势和时间上的不稳定性以及每个小组中的国家数量很少。特别是，我们提出了一种参数推论方法，可以对临界点的潜在弱识别进行校正。如果真实的EKC是线性的，而将二次收入项强加到估计的方程式中，则可能会出现识别困难。迄今为止的相关文献证实，EKC的非线性确实不被允许，这为我们的工作提供了动力。我们还提出了参数置信集的非参数对应项，用于敏感性分析。从总体上看，我们的结果证实了经合组织国家中呈倒U型的EKC，但其他国家通常没有，尽管当地污染物分析显示，OECD国家以外存在有利的例外情况。我们的不确定性测量结果表明，很难确定经济上可行的临界点。但是，可以从局部污染的长期或非参数角度恢复与政策相关的临界点估计。

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