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Prices Versus Quantities: Technology Choice, Uncertainty and Welfare

机译：价格与数量：技术选择，不确定性和福利

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摘要

Technological improvements have proven essential in mitigating environmental problems such as climate change, depletion of the ozone layer and acid rain. While it is well-known that price- and quantity-based regulatory instruments provide different investment levels, the effects on the choice between different technologies have received scant attention. This paper expands on the prices versus quantities literature by investigating firms' technology choice in the face of demand and supply side uncertainty. I show that the regulator can not design tradable emissions permits and an emissions tax such that the two regimes are equivalent, even in terms of expected values. Moreover, a tax encourages the most flexible abatement technology if and only if stochastic costs and the equilibrium permit price have sufficiently strong positive covariance, compared with the variance in consumer demand for the good produced. Finally, the firms' technology choices are socially optimal under tradable emissions permits, but not under an emissions tax.
机译：事实证明，技术改进对于缓解环境问题至关重要，例如气候变化，臭氧层耗竭和酸雨。众所周知，基于价格和数量的监管工具提供了不同的投资水平，但对不同技术之间选择的影响却很少受到关注。本文通过研究面对需求和供应方面不确定性的公司的技术选择，扩大了价格与数量的关系。我表明，监管机构不能设计可交易的排放许可证和排放税，以使两个制度都等效，即使就期望值而言也是如此。此外，当且仅当随机成本和均衡许可价格具有足够强的正协方差（与消费者对所生产商品的需求方差相比）时，税收才鼓励采用最灵活的减排技术。最后，在可交易的排放许可下，企业的技术选择在社会上是最优的，但在排放税下却不是。

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