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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental & Resource Economics >Epstein-Zin Utility in DICE: Is Risk Aversion Irrelevant to Climate Policy?
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Epstein-Zin Utility in DICE: Is Risk Aversion Irrelevant to Climate Policy?

机译：DICE中的Epstein-Zin实用程序：风险规避与气候政策无关吗？

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摘要

Climate change involves uncertain probabilities of catastrophic risks, and very longterm consequences of current actions. Climate economics, therefore, is centrally concerned with the treatment of risk and time. Yet conventional assumptions about utility and optimal economic growth create a perverse connection between risk aversion and time preference, such that more aversion to current risks implies less concern for future outcomes, and vice versa. The same conflation of risk aversion and time preference leads to the equity premium puzzle in finance. A promising response to the equity premium puzzle, the recursive utility of Epstein and Zin, allows separation of risk aversion and time preference-at the cost of considerable analytic complexity. We introduce an accessible implementation of Epstein-Zin utility into the DICE model of climate economics, creating a hybrid "EZ-DICE" model. Using Epstein-Zin parameters from the finance literature and climate uncertainty parameters from the science literature, we find that the optimal climate policy in EZ-DICE calls for rapid abatement of carbon emissions; it is similar to standard DICE results with the discount rate set to equal the risk-free rate of return. EZ-DICE solutions are sensitive to the intertem-poral elasticity of substitution, but remarkably insensitive to risk aversion. Insensitivity to risk aversion may reflect the difficulty of modeling catastrophic risks within DICE. Implicit in DICE are strong assumptions about the cost of climate stabilization and the certainty and speed of success; under these assumptions, risk aversion would in fact be unimportant. A more realistic analysis will require a subtler treatment of catastrophic climate risk.
机译：气候变化涉及灾难性风险的不确定性，以及当前行动的长期后果。因此，气候经济学主要关注风险和时间的处理。然而，关于效用和最佳经济增长的常规假设在风险规避和时间偏好之间产生了反常的联系，因此对当前风险的厌恶越多，对未来结果的关注就越少，反之亦然。风险规避和时间偏好的相同混合会导致金融中的股权溢价难题。对股票溢价之谜的一个有希望的回应是爱泼斯坦和辛的递归效用，它允许风险规避和时间偏好的分离，但要付出相当大的分析复杂性。我们将爱泼斯坦-锌实用程序的可访问实现方式引入气候经济学的DICE模型中，从而创建了混合的“ EZ-DICE”模型。利用金融文献中的爱泼斯坦-金参数和科学文献中的气候不确定性参数，我们发现EZ-DICE中的最佳气候政策要求迅速减少碳排放。它与标准DICE结果相似，折现率设置为等于无风险收益率。 EZ-DICE解决方案对替换的内部弹性很敏感，但对风险规避却非常不敏感。对风险规避的不敏感性可能反映了在DICE中建模灾难性风险的难度。 DICE隐含着对气候稳定成本以及成功的确定性和速度的强烈假设；在这些假设下，风险规避实际上并不重要。更现实的分析将需要对灾难性气候风险进行更精细的处理。

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