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A Good Opening: The Key to Make the Most of Unilateral Climate Action

机译:良好的开放:充分利用单边气候行动的关键

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In this paper we argue that when a subgroup of countries cooperate on emission reduction, the optimal response of non-signatory countries reflects the interaction between three potentially opposing factors, the incentive to free-ride on the environmental benefits of cooperation, the incentive to expand energy consumption, and the incentive to adopt the cleaner technologies introduced by the coalition. Using an Integrated Assessment Model with a game-theoretic structure we find that the equilibrium abatement of the coalition composed by OECD countries would be moderate, in line with the Pledges subscribed in Copenhagen, but increasing. The mitigation strategy would consist of investments in energy R&D and deployment of cleaner technologies with high learning potentials. International knowledge and technology externalities would facilitate the diffusion of cleaner technologies in non-signatory countries, offsetting the free-riding incentive and reducing their emissions. If the OECD group curbs emissions beyond the optimal equilibrium level, reaching reduction rates between 40 and 45 % below 2005 levels in 2050, the benefits of technology externalities would no longer compensate the effect of lower fossil fuel prices. Our results suggest that a moderate unilateral climate policy could induce a virtuous behaviour in non-signatory countries and that policies promoting the international transfer of technologies and knowledge could represent an effective complement to mitigation targets.
机译:在本文中,我们认为,当一个国家集团在减排方面进行合作时,非签署国的最佳反应反映了三个潜在对立因素之间的相互作用,即搭便车对合作的环境效益的激励作用,对扩大环境的激励作用。能源消耗,以及采用联盟引入的更清洁技术的动力。使用具有博弈论结构的综合评估模型,我们发现,经合组织国家组成的联盟的均衡减排将是适度的,与哥本哈根会议上承诺的认捐相符,但仍在增加。缓解战略将包括对能源研发的投资以及具有高学习潜力的更清洁技术的部署。国际知识和技术的外部性将促进清洁技术在非签字国的传播,从而抵消搭便车的动机并减少其排放。如果经合组织集团抑制排放量超过最佳平衡水平,到2050年达到比2005年水平减少40%至45%的减排量,那么技术外部性的好处将不再弥补化石燃料价格下跌的影响。我们的研究结果表明,适度的单方面气候政策可能会在非签署国引起道德行为,而促进国际技术和知识转让的政策可能是缓解目标的有效补充。

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