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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental & Resource Economics >Biofuels and Land Use Change: Sugarcane and Soybean Acreage Response in Brazil
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Biofuels and Land Use Change: Sugarcane and Soybean Acreage Response in Brazil

机译：生物燃料和土地利用变化：巴西的甘蔗和大豆种植面积响应

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Scientists and economists are increasingly worried that biofuels production is leading to land use changes in the form of competition with food crops or loss of natural ecosystems. I estimate acreage conversion in response to shocks in sugarcane (a biofuels feedstock) and soybean (thought to be affected by United States corn ethanol production) prices in Brazil at a national and regional level. Using county-level data from 1973 to 2005,1 consider a dynamic panel data model of input demand for agricultural land, conditioning on price changes of other commodities. The short-run crop-price elasticity of sugarcane acreage in Brazil is estimated to be approximately zero, whereas the elasticity of soybean acreage is 0.9 when both spot and futures prices change. The regional estimates for soybeans show considerable variation, and are highest in areas of ecological importance, such as the cerrado. Sugarcane estimates are more homogeneous. These results should be taken into account in impact assessments of biofuels.
机译：科学家和经济学家越来越担心生物燃料的生产正以与粮食作物竞争或自然生态系统丧失的形式导致土地用途的变化。我估计在巴西和巴西（在国家和地区范围内）因甘蔗（一种生物燃料原料）和大豆（应受美国玉米乙醇产量影响）价格波动而引起的面积转换。利用1973年至2005年的县级数据，1，以其他商品的价格变化为条件，对农业用地投入需求的动态面板数据模型进行了研究。估计巴西甘蔗种植面积的短期作物价格弹性约为零，而现货价格和期货价格均发生变化时，大豆种植面积的弹性系数为0.9。大豆的区域估计值显示出很大的差异，并且在具有生态重要性的地区（例如塞拉多）最高。甘蔗的估计更为均匀。在生物燃料的影响评估中应考虑这些结果。

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