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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental & Resource Economics >Species Invasion as Catastrophe: The Case of the Brown Tree Snake
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Species Invasion as Catastrophe: The Case of the Brown Tree Snake

机译：作为灾难​​的物种入侵：以棕树蛇为例

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This paper develops a two-stage model for the optimal management of a potential invasive species. The arrival of an invasive species is modeled as an irreversible event with an uncertain arrival time. The model is solved in two stages, beginning with the post-invasion stage. Once the arrival occurs, the optimal path of species removal is that which minimizes the present value of damage and removal costs plus the expected present value of prevention costs. An expenditure-dependent, conditional hazard rate describing species arrival is developed based on discussions with natural resource managers. We solve for the optimal sequence of prevention expenditures, given the minimum invasion penalty as just described. For the case of the Brown Tree Snake potentially invading Hawaii, we find that pre-invasion expenditures on prevention are inverse U-shaped in the hazard rate. Efficient prevention should be approximately $2.9 million today and held constant until invasion. Once invasion occurs, optimal prevention requires $3.1 million annually and $1.6million per year on species removal to keep the population at its steady state level, due to high search costs at very small population levels.
机译：本文为潜在入侵物种的最佳管理开发了一个两阶段模型。入侵物种的到来被建模为不可逆事件，到达时间不确定。从入侵后阶段开始，模型分为两个阶段求解。一旦到达，物种清除的最佳路径就是将破坏和清除成本的现值加上预防成本的预期现值最小化的路径。根据与自然资源管理者的讨论，制定了描述物种到达的依赖支出的有条件危害率。给定最小的入侵惩罚，我们解决了最佳的预防支出顺序。对于可能入侵夏威夷的棕树蛇，我们发现入侵前的预防支出在危害率上呈倒U型。今天，有效的预防应约为290万美元，并且在入侵发生之前保持不变。一旦入侵发生，由于在很小的种群水平上高昂的搜寻费用，为了使种群保持稳定，最佳的预防措施每年需要310万美元和每年160万美元的物种清除费用。

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