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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental & Resource Economics >Wind Power in Europe: A Simultaneous Innovation-Diffusion Model
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Wind Power in Europe: A Simultaneous Innovation-Diffusion Model

机译：欧洲的风力发电：同时创新扩散模型

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摘要

The purpose of this paper is to provide a quantitative analysis of innovation and diffusion in the European wind power sector. We derive a simultaneous model of wind power innovation and diffusion, which combines a rational choice model of technological diffusion and a learning curve model of dynamic cost reductions. These models are estimated using pooled annual time series data for four European countries (Denmark, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom) over the time period 1986-2000. The empirical results indicate that reductions in investment costs have been important determinants of increased diffusion of wind power, and these cost reductions can in turn be explained by learning activities and public R&D support. Feed-in tariffs also play an important role in the innovation and diffusion processes. The higher is the feed-in price the higher is, ceteris paribus, the rate of diffusion, and we present some preliminary empirical support for the notion that the impact on diffusion of a marginal increase in the feed-in tariff will differ depending on the support system used. High feed-in tariffs, though, also have a negative effect on cost reductions as they induce wind generators to choose high-cost sites and provide fewer incentives for cost cuts. This illustrates the importance of designing an efficient wind energy support system, which not only promotes diffusion but also provides continuous incentives for cost-reducing innovations.
机译：本文的目的是对欧洲风电领域的创新和扩散进行定量分析。我们推导了风电创新和扩散的同时模型，该模型结合了技术扩散的合理选择模型和动态成本降低的学习曲线模型。这些模型是使用1986-2000年期间四个欧洲国家（丹麦，德国，西班牙和英国）的合并年度时间序列数据估算的。实证结果表明，投资成本的降低是增加风电扩散的重要决定因素，而这些成本的降低又可以通过学习活动和公共研发支持来解释。上网电价在创新和传播过程中也起着重要作用。上网电价越高，对等的价格，扩散率就越高，我们为上网电价的边际增加对边际电价的边际影响会有所不同的观点提供一些初步的经验支持。支持系统。但是，高额上网电价也对降低成本有负面影响，因为它们诱使风力发电机组选择高成本地点，并减少了削减成本的动机。这说明了设计高效风能支持系统的重要性，该系统不仅可以促进扩散，而且可以为降低成本的创新提供持续的激励。

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