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Climate Policy without Tears: CGE-Based Ancillary Benefits Estimates for Chile

机译:不加泪的气候政策:基于CGE的智利辅助效益估计

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摘要

This study examines a hitherto neglected set of benefits from climate policy, viz., the reduction in emissions of local air pollutants and the associated health benefits, in this case for residents of Santiago de Chile. By using an economy-wide model, we are able to compare these monetised benefits to the direct costs of carbon abatement, thereby determining the scope for "no regrets" CO_2 reductions. Sensitivity analysis is performed in recognition of the uncertainty surrounding certain key parameter and exogenous variable values - notably, households' willingness to pay (WTP) for reduced mortality and morbidity risk, and the substitution elasticities among energy sources and between energy and other inputs. Our results suggest that, even with the most conservative assumptions (low WTP, low elasticities), Chile could reduce CO_2 emissions by almost 20% from the 2010 baseline with no net welfare loss, though a 10% reduction is closer to "optimal". If instead Chile were to target a 20% reduction in particulate concentrations, a paniculate tax would incur slightly lower costs than an equivalent carbon tax to achieve the same health benefits. While the latter is a second-best method of addressing local pollution, the welfare loss of choosing this instrument could be fully compensated by carbon credit sales at a world market price of $20/tC.
机译:这项研究研究了迄今为止被忽略的一系列气候政策带来的好处,即减少本地空气污染物的排放以及相关的健康益处,在这种情况下,是智利圣地亚哥的居民。通过使用整个经济模型,我们能够将这些货币化收益与减排的直接成本进行比较,从而确定“不后悔”减少CO_2的范围。进行敏感性分析是为了识别围绕某些关键参数和外生变量值的不确定性-尤其是家庭为降低死亡率和发病率风险而支付的意愿(WTP),以及能源之间以及能源与其他投入之间的替代弹性。我们的结果表明,即使采用最保守的假设(低WTP,低弹性),智利也可以比2010年基准减少近20%的CO_2排放,而没有净福利损失,尽管减少10%接近“最佳”。相反,如果智利的目标是将颗粒物浓度降低20%,那么为实现相同的健康益处,与等量的碳税相比,征收碳税会导致成本略低。尽管后者是解决当地污染的第二好的方法,但选择该工具所造成的福利损失可以通过以20美元/吨的世界市场价格进行的碳信用额销售来完全弥补。

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