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Are The Costs of Proposed Environmental Regulations Overestimated? Evidence from the CFC Phaseout

机译：建议的环境法规的成本是否被高估？氟氯化碳淘汰的证据

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摘要

Benefit-cost and cost-effectiveness analysis are often advocated for decision making about environmental, health, and safety regulations, but there has been little research evaluating the accur- acy of prospective estimates of regulatory costs and benefits. Prospective estimates of the marginal cost of limiting chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) consumption in the United States, published shortly before and after the September 1987 adoption of the Montreal Protocol, are compared with retrospective estimates based on realized market prices. Estimates published before international regulations were adopted (in May 1986) substantially overestimate the marginal costs of limiting CFC-11 and CFC- 12 consumption but modestly underestimate the costs of limiting CFC-113 consumption. In contrast, estimates published shortly after adoption of the Protocol (in August 1988) appear to underestimate the marginal cost of limiting CFC consumption.
机译：人们经常提倡效益成本和成本效益分析来制定有关环境，健康和安全法规的决策，但是很少有研究评估监管成本和效益的前瞻性估计的准确性。 1987年9月《蒙特利尔议定书》通过之前和之后不久发布的美国限制氯氟烃（CFC）消费边际成本的预期估计值与基于实际市场价格的回顾性估计值进行了比较。在采用国际法规之前（1986年5月）发表的估计数大大高估了限制CFC-11和CFC-12消费的边际成本，但适度低估了限制CFC-113消费的成本。相反，在通过《议定书》后不久（1988年8月）发表的估计数似乎低估了限制氟氯化碳消费的边际成本。

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